冠通期货PP日报：PP震荡下行-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The PP price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply reduction expectation of PP remains due to the un - restored navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, the market is affected by the Middle - East situation, and the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased by 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the start - up rate has not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14%. On March 31, the parking devices changed little, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises remained at about 73%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 27.5%. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and it is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The Middle - East conflict still exists, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. The start - up rate of devices has decreased again. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute. The Middle - East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on imports from the Middle - East, its upstream depends on liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil from the Middle - East. The PP production capacity in the Middle - East accounts for 9% of the world and about 25% of the world's polyolefin exports, affecting international prices and supply. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the load reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, with light spot transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 9019 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 9393 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 9103 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.12%. The position decreased by 18026 lots to 319551 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawing was reported at 8480 - 9180 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 31, the parking devices changed little, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises remained at about 73%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased by 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has a low acceptance of high - priced raw materials, the demand is slowly recovering, and the start - up rate has not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14% [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 850000 tons week - on - week, 30000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10/ton to $1290/ton week - on - week [4]