原油日报：震荡下行-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA data shows that the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. The market is focused on the Middle East situation. Although some measures have alleviated short - term supply pressure, it is still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of US - Iran negotiations is low, the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation, and the Middle East situation remains tense, with the risk of crude oil price surges still present. It is recommended to participate with caution [1] - The price of the main crude oil futures contract 2605 dropped by 2.94% to 740.6 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 725.0 yuan/ton, the highest at 766.8 yuan/ton, and the position volume decreased by 4196 to 49215 lots [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 行情分析 - EIA data shows that US crude oil inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and overall oil product inventories continued to increase. Iran's daily crude oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut down for many days, causing Middle East oil - producing countries to cut production. Although the IEA announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The US has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil, the Venezuelan oil industry, and Iranian crude oil on tankers. Iraq and the Kurdish region have reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the Kurdish pipeline. However, these measures are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of US - Iran negotiations is low, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The US military is deploying in the Middle East, and the situation remains tense [1] 期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2605 fell 2.94% to 740.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 725.0 yuan/ton, a high of 766.8 yuan/ton, and the position volume decreased by 4196 to 49215 lots [2] 基本面跟踪 - The EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the Brent crude oil price in 2026 to be $78.84 per barrel (previously $57.69), and in 2027 to be $64.47 per barrel (previously $53). Affected by the Middle East conflict, it is expected that the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter. In terms of supply and demand, the EIA expects global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day (lower than the previous forecast of 107.8 million barrels per day) and global oil demand to be 105.2 million barrels per day (higher than the previous forecast of 104.8 million barrels per day). OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 to 106.53 million barrels per day and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 to 107.87 million barrels per day. The IEA has significantly reduced the global crude oil supply growth forecast from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. It says the Middle East conflict is causing the largest - scale supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and it is expected that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [3] - On the evening of March 25, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 20 increased by 6.926 million barrels (expected 477,000 barrels), 4.40% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.593 million barrels (expected 2.143 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 3.032 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.292 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 3.421 million barrels. OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. US crude oil production for the week of March 20 decreased by 11,000 barrels per day to 13.657 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.678 million barrels per day, a 0.38% increase compared to the same period last year, and the increase compared to last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline production increased by 2.25% to 8.924 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.796 million barrels per day, a 0.41% decrease compared to the same period last year; the weekly diesel production decreased by 18.89% to 3.568 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 3.933 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The decrease in diesel and other oil products led to a 7.56% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]