沥青日报：震荡运行-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large fluctuations in the market. It is necessary to control risks and participate cautiously, while paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. In April, the domestic asphalt planned production is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons or 22.4% month-on-month, and a decrease of 764,000 tons or 33.3% year-on-year [1] - Demand side: After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week-on-week, returning to the level at the end of January. Last week, the national shipment volume increased by 14.66% week-on-week to 126,000 tons, still at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week-on-week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong region remained stable, and the basis was repaired to a moderately low level [1] - Raw materials: China's imported crude oil from Venezuela is expected to still be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Coupled with the current attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the supply of raw materials in the Middle East will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2606 fell 1.53% to 4,512 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 4,440 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 4,630 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 211 to 274,080 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 4,420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to -92 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry was -0.6%, an improvement from -6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year-on-year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from -2.2% from January to December 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week-on-week compared to the week of March 20, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]