焦煤日报：长协浮动值下跌-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is in a recovery phase. Although the situation has cooled down, there is demand support at the bottom. The market should continue to monitor the performance of crude oil and conflicts. The coking coal price opened low and moved lower, with the long - term association floating value falling. The inventory is being transferred downstream, and the market has a low acceptance of high - priced coking coal [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and moved lower during the day. Domestic mines have resumed production smoothly, with the current domestic mine operating rate reaching 89.16%, a 0.57% increase from last week. The refined coal output decreased month - on - month, but the downstream sales were smooth. After the coke price increase, coke enterprises actively purchased. The mine inventory decreased by 31.26 tons month - on - month, while the downstream coke enterprises' inventory increased by 42.51 tons this week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 8.48 tons. The downstream has started the inventory accumulation mode, and the coking coal inventory is being transferred downstream. The coke output increased month - on - month, the steel mill's profitability has recovered, and the operating rate increased by 1.25%. The weekly daily output of molten iron is 231.09 tons. The restricted steel mills are gradually resuming production. A round of coke price increase started last week and will be implemented on April 1st. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and the trading activity has significantly decreased. The market has a low acceptance of high prices. According to the coking coal long - term association coal - steel linkage plan data, the floating value of coking coal long - term association coal - steel linkage in March 2026 decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared with February 2026, a decline of 1.6%. Due to the cooling of the energy and chemical sector and the rebound of non - ferrous and precious metals, coking coal prices declined [1]. Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal is 1141 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures is 1148.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 211.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply Data: From March 21st to March 27th, the operating rate of 523 sample domestic mines for coking coal was 89.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.57 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 78.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21 tons [4]. - Demand Data: From March 21st to March 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.76 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 tons [5].