瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects short - term Shanghai nickel to fluctuate and adjust, with attention focused on the 135,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 134,780 yuan/ton, down 2,340 yuan; the 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 300 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,325 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 164,700 lots, down 11,544 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 52,417 lots, down 2,462 lots; LME nickel inventory is 281,526 tons, down 48 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,479 tons, up 818 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 17,610 tons, down 48 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,858 tons, up 685 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 137,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 2,170 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 201.58 US dollars/ton, down 10.38 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1223,900 tons, down 160,300 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7,418,400 tons, down 508,200 tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 96.59 US dollars/ton, down 28.97 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, down 5,231.79 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 831,700 tons, down 78,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1,319,400 tons, down 538,700 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 626,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [3] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound tourists and measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket and leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping [3] - Due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [3] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special consumption - boosting action to promote continuous consumption growth [3] - Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, but the Middle East conflict has suppressed risk sentiment. In the fundamentals, the cost of nickel ore in the Philippines has increased, the approval progress of Indonesian nickel ore production is slow, and Indonesia will postpone the plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports [3] Viewpoint Summary - On the smelting side, nickel - iron plants have cut production due to ore shortages, and the cost support will continue to be transmitted; the production profit of electrolytic nickel continues to shrink, and the production in China and India is also restricted [3] - On the demand side, steel mills' resumption of production has accelerated after the festival, but they still face production - cut pressure due to profit compression; the output of new - energy ternary precursors remains high but the growth rate has slowed, and the share - squeezing effect of lithium iron phosphate continues [3] - Domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium remains stable; overseas LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has been adjusted downwards [3] - Technically, the price has corrected while the position has increased, indicating greater divergence between bulls and bears [3]