玻璃、纯碱日报：日内走弱-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair and policies) and "weak real - world demand" (a sluggish real - estate market), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on price rebounds. It's expected to continue an oscillatory adjustment in the short term [1]. - The纯碱 market still has an unimproved situation of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It's expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak - trending fluctuation in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened and closed lower, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday high was 1040, the low was 1017, and the closing price was 1019, down 23 yuan/ton or 2.21% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume increased by 168,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 32,126 lots [1]. - Market analysis: The core contradiction lies between supply contraction expectations and weak real - world demand. High inventory restricts price rebounds. Recently, some glass production lines have undergone cold repair, and supply has continued to decline. However, downstream demand recovery is below expectations, and real - estate completion data suppresses far - month demand expectations. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract will return to the fundamental delivery logic [1]. 纯碱 - Market performance: The main 纯碱 contract opened and closed lower, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened in a horn shape, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1177, and the closing price was 1177, down 38 yuan/ton or 3.13% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume decreased by 98,996 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 35,848 lots [2]. - Inventory situation: The total domestic 纯碱 inventory of manufacturers was 1.8648 million tons, an increase of 12,900 tons or 0.70% from last Thursday. Among them, light 纯碱 inventory was 930,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons from the previous period, and heavy 纯碱 inventory was 934,400 tons, an increase of 29,100 tons from the previous period [2]. - Market analysis: The core logic is the unimproved mismatch between supply and demand. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs, providing support. However, due to the expected reduction in float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for 纯碱 is weak, while daily production remains high, resulting in continuous supply pressure. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract will face the contradiction of weak reality and high inventory [2].