供应减量不及预期，PVC承压下行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31, the main PVC contract dropped 5.39% to close at 5,353 yuan/ton. The weak performance was due to two reasons: the profit recovery boosted the开工 willingness of calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises and the load of ethylene - based enterprises also increased, resulting in the supply reduction of PVC falling short of expectations; the US released a signal of geopolitical easing, cooling the commodity market sentiment and causing PVC to give back the geopolitical premium [1]. - In the short - term, PVC production stopped falling and stabilized, with the load of domestic ethylene - based enterprises increasing and the marginal calcium carbide - based enterprises starting up more. In the medium - term, the stability of raw material supply for ethylene - based enterprises should be noted. Overseas, chlor - alkali plants in Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and South Asia have cut production due to raw material supply disruptions [2]. - PVC downstream start - up improved month - on - month, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases was poor. Domestic export orders remained normal as foreign buyers made rigid purchases. [2] - The price of calcium carbide rebounded moderately, and the dynamic comprehensive cost of calcium carbide - based PVC changed relatively little. The price of ethylene was strong, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased. The supply and demand of calcium carbide both increased, and the rising rate of calcium carbide may slow down. Due to the supply disruption of crude oil and naphtha and the reduction of overseas cracking load, ethylene remained strong [2]. - Looking forward, the PVC market is under pressure due to the uncertain geopolitical expectations and the domestic PVC production cut falling short of expectations. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of production cuts for PVC at home and abroad, and domestic exports will still be favorable, giving the market the momentum to rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Short - term: PVC production stopped falling and stabilized. The load of domestic ethylene - based enterprises increased, and the marginal calcium carbide - based enterprises started up more [2]. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the stability of raw material supply for ethylene - based enterprises. If raw material procurement is difficult, ethylene - based enterprises may still cut production [2]. - Overseas: Chlor - alkali plants in Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and South Asia have cut production due to raw material supply disruptions [2]. Demand - PVC downstream start - up improved month - on - month, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases was poor. Overseas and domestic prices soared, foreign buyers made rigid purchases, and domestic export orders remained normal [2]. Valuation - Calcium carbide price rebounded moderately, and the dynamic comprehensive cost of calcium carbide - based PVC changed relatively little. Ethylene price was strong, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased. The supply and demand of calcium carbide both increased, and the rising rate of calcium carbide may slow down. Due to the supply disruption of crude oil and naphtha and the reduction of overseas cracking load, ethylene remained strong [2].