南华期货有色金属锌2026年度二季度展望：潜龙在渊，虎视眈眈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. At the beginning of the quarter, prices will be relatively weak due to macro - negative factors and high inventory levels. Towards the end of the quarter, prices are expected to strengthen with the reduction of imported ore volume and cost support from energy disturbances [1]. - The core narrative of the overseas macro - market in the first quarter of 2026 has shifted to a stagflation trading theme, which will directly affect the price of zinc and other industrial products [8]. - The supply side is facing challenges such as reduced overseas zinc ore increments and potential disruptions in transportation, while the demand side shows a delayed recovery, with different downstream industries having different impacts on zinc consumption [1][28][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - Price trend: Zinc prices will fluctuate in the second quarter. At the beginning, they will be weak due to macro - negative factors and high inventory, and strengthen at the end with reduced imports and cost support [1]. - Macro: At the beginning of the quarter, the war - induced systemic risk is the main trading theme. If the war ends quickly, energy disturbances may lead to a higher price center, and commodities may strengthen under stagflation trading [1]. - Supply side: TC remained stable in the first quarter. There may be a shortage of imported ore for domestic enterprises, and import TC has room to decline. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the transportation of some zinc concentrates [1]. - Demand side: Downstream demand is significantly delayed, but terminal consumption shows strong resilience after the Two Sessions. Demand is expected to recover slowly in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the turning point of social inventory [1]. - Forecast range: The core fluctuation range of the SHFE Shanghai zinc main contract in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to be 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 3000 - 3450 US dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter, zinc prices in the non - ferrous metals sector were relatively weak but still followed the overall volatility increase. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed an inverted V - shaped trend of rising at the beginning, oscillating during the holiday, and falling after the holiday. Macro - sentiment disturbances and continuous shortages of ore supply were the two core factors [4]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Macro - economic Factors - Crude oil price increase: Since March 2026, international crude oil prices have skyrocketed. By March 27, the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract reached 106.29 US dollars/barrel, with a cumulative increase of over 36% from early March. Geopolitical conflicts and long - term production cuts are the main reasons for the price increase [9][12]. - Stagflation trading: The sharp increase in oil prices has led to inflation and suppressed economic growth, triggering stagflation trading. The inflation data is expected to rise, and economic growth is under pressure [13][16]. - Monetary policy: The Fed's monetary policy has shifted from an expected continuous interest rate cut to a more hawkish stance, with the possibility of restarting interest rate hikes [23]. - Key variables: The core contradiction in the overseas macro - environment is the persistence of the crude oil supply shock caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Key variables to watch include the development of geopolitical conflicts, US inflation data from March to April, and the economic growth and employment market [25]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Supply Side - Zinc concentrate: In 2025, global zinc mine production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.40%. In 2026, the growth rate of global zinc concentrate production is expected to narrow. Overseas zinc ore production has been affected by many factors, and the expected increment has been continuously revised downwards. Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to increase by 180,000 tons in 2026 [26][28][33]. - Smelting end: In 2025, global zinc ingot production was 13.8225 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%. In 2026, domestic smelting is supported by profits, and new production capacity is being put into operation. Overseas smelting is affected by raw materials and energy, and the annual output is expected to increase by 50,000 tons [38][42][52]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Demand Side - Real estate: In 2026, the real estate market will still drag down the zinc market, but the drag is limited. The completion data may show a soft - landing feature of a halved decline [61]. - Infrastructure: In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a medium - to - high - speed growth. The "14th Five - Year Plan" for the power grid will drive zinc consumption, with an expected 2026 investment of 120 billion yuan in UHV projects, which will consume 43,700 - 69,300 tons of zinc [65]. - Automobile: In 2026, the growth rate of automobile sales is expected to slow down, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50%. The lightweight trend of new energy vehicles will drag down the growth rate of zinc consumption by about - 0.31% [68]. - Household appliances: In 2026, the household appliance industry will maintain a moderate positive growth, but the marginal contribution to zinc consumption is limited [73]. - Emerging fields: The growth rate of the photovoltaic industry will decline in 2026, which will drag down zinc consumption. The wind power industry is expected to become a core growth point, with an expected global wind power zinc consumption of about 430,000 tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [83][87]. - Downstream demand: Downstream demand recovery was slow in the first quarter, but it is expected to return in the second quarter [89]. 3.6 Chapter 6: Import - Export and Inventory - Import - export: In 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased by 30.1% year - on - year. The import structure is affected by geopolitical factors, and the import TC may decline again. The internal - external price ratio may further invert in the second quarter [96][101]. - Inventory: In the first quarter, domestic and overseas inventories were polarized. Domestic inventories increased rapidly, while LME inventories remained at a low level. In the future, LME inventories are likely to remain low, and domestic inventories may remain at a high level [103]. 3.7 Chapter 7: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Global zinc concentrate balance: In 2026, the global zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 12.88 million tons, and the consumption is 12.78 million tons, with a surplus of 100,000 tons [108]. - Global refined zinc balance: In 2026, the global refined zinc supply is expected to be 14.03 million tons, and the consumption is 13.9 million tons, with a surplus of 130,000 tons [109]. - China's zinc concentrate balance: In 2026, China's zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 7.185 million tons, and the consumption is 7.02 million tons, with a surplus of 325,000 tons [110]. - China's refined zinc balance: In 2026, China's refined zinc supply is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and the consumption is 7.12 million tons, with a surplus of 80,000 tons [110].