橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险降温，能化震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rubber: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 0.82% lower at 16,345 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 55 yuan/ton. With the approaching of a new round of rubber - tapping period, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating downward, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 3,373 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 3,172 yuan/ton, closing 4.69% lower at 3,229 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 271 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks, methanol gave back part of its premium, and it is expected that the methanol futures will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 766.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 725.0 yuan/barrel, closing 2.94% lower at 740.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Iran semi - blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Iran attacked each other. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons or 0.85%. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [8]. - As of March 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8%. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a 52.4% year - on - year increase in February [9]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.66%, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.99%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0717 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 244,800 tons compared with 1.8269 million tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 34.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.66%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 532 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 606 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 755,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 219,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,300 tons. As of the week of March 26, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 107,200 tons compared with 327,800 tons in the same period of the previous year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period of the previous year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.657 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 83,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 456.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.926 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 22.558 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 30.945 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.421 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 92.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.9 percentage points [13]. - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 223,620 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,923 contracts and a significant increase of 84,511 contracts or 60.75% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 24, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 315,830 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 12,874 contracts and a significant increase of 154,436 contracts or 95.69% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,350 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 16,345 yuan/ton | - 195 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | + 195 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,560 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | 3,229 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | + 331 yuan/ton | + 90 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 776.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 740.6 yuan/barrel | - 22.9 yuan/barrel | + 35.9 yuan/barrel | + 22.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].