有色商品日报（2026 年 3 月 31 日）-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell. The import window for domestic refined copper spot opened, but the import profit margin significantly narrowed. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance led the market to bet on a possible interest - rate cut this year. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran conflict, remained a focus. Domestic downstream restocking was significant, driving the rapid reduction of social inventories. Short - term, it is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina plant inventory was at a three - month high, and the inventory was turning to a cumulative trend. The high premium on the futures market accelerated the registration of warehouse receipts, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East were expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation situation showed signs of significant improvement, and a de - stocking inflection point was expected in April. In the short term, the influence of Middle - East geopolitics was dominant, and the pattern of weak Shanghai and strong London was difficult to quickly converge [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Under the dual influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight rates, nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, and the weekly nickel - iron quotes and transaction prices both increased. However, the primary nickel market showed great pressure. Due to the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, there were short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment, as well as the expected additional quotas in July and the pressure from primary nickel inventory [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macroscopically, Powell's dovish remarks led to market expectations of an interest - rate cut. Geopolitically, the US - Iran conflict situation was complex. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 2350 tons to 362,600 tons, Comex copper inventory decreased by 723 tons to 533,540 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 6105 tons to 230,971 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 303 tons to 13,055 tons. Domestic downstream restocking was significant, indicating strong domestic demand [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina futures closed at 2900 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,745 yuan/ton, up 0.9%. Aluminum alloy closed at 23,585 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. The SMM alumina price rebounded to 2788 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount was 90 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina plant inventory was high, and the inventory was accumulating. Attacks on Middle - East aluminum plants were expected to boost overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation situation was improving [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.64% to 17,325 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.23% to 136,220 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained at 281,574 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 104 tons to 57,173 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply and rising costs, there were short - term long - trading opportunities, but attention should be paid to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 95,175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton to 85,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 574 yuan/ton to 3728 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 6105 tons, and the total social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 43,000 tons to 486,000 tons [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead remained at 16,400 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 75 tons to 283,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 404 tons to 52,867 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 8531 tons to 57,579 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 690 yuan/ton and 710 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2200 tons to 418,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4255 tons to 412,452 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 24,000 tons to 1.373 million tons, while the alumina social inventory decreased by 38,000 tons to 320,000 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1300 yuan/ton to 140,250 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged at 281,574 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 104 tons to 57,173 tons, and the total social nickel inventory increased by 1359 tons to 89,808 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 0.7% to 23,420 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 115,275 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 400 tons to 214,000 tons [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 2.5% to 364,570 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 55 tons to 8665 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 1642 tons to 8400 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][20][21]. - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [22][24][26]. - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [28][30][32]. - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [34][36][39]. - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - 展大鹏: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [47]. - 王珩: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst from Futures Daily and Securities Times and an outstanding new analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 [47]. - 朱希: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst from Futures Daily and Securities Times [48].