原油、燃料油日报：美国强硬警告伊朗，地缘不确定性支撑油价高位震荡-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and may continue to rise in the short term due to increased geopolitical risks on the supply side, strong Asian refining activities on the demand side, and stable inventory with potential supply risks that could inhibit inventory accumulation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: On March 30, 2026, the price of the SC main contract rose from 740.8 yuan/barrel on March 27 to 763.5 yuan/barrel, a 3.06% increase. The WTI and Brent main contract prices remained stable at 101.18 and 106.29 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened from 0.91 US dollars/barrel to 4.15 US dollars/barrel, a 356.04% increase, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 6.02 US dollars/barrel to 9.26 US dollars/barrel, a 53.82% increase. The Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 5.11 US dollars/barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread rose slightly from 16.9 yuan/barrel to 17.9 yuan/barrel, a 5.92% increase [1]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks. Houthi attacks on Israel and the US warning to Iran have increased concerns about supply disruptions. Vietnam's refineries are seeking to diversify their supply sources [2]. - Demand Side: Demand is strong, mainly driven by Asian refining activities. Vietnam's refineries have high production targets and capacity utilization, and India's export tax exemption may stimulate export demand. Asian naphtha refining profits have reached record highs [2]. - Inventory Side: On March 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3,511,000 barrels, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 49,960 tons, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased by 500 tons to 35,600 tons [2]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: The SC price increased, while WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, and other prices remained unchanged. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained stable. - Spreads: SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened significantly, while the Brent - WTI spread remained stable. - Other Assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and most other assets remained unchanged, and the RMB exchange rate had a 0.04% change [5]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: The FU and LU prices increased, while some international fuel oil futures prices remained unchanged. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices remained stable. - Paper Prices: Some paper prices were not available. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.90%. - Inventory: Some Platts prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On March 30, Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical is negotiating to buy Russian crude oil, will increase purchases of African and US crude oil, and has secured 2.3 million barrels of Vietnamese crude oil for May and June production. It will produce 2 million tons of fuel in the second quarter with a capacity utilization rate of 123% and aims to produce 8.3 million tons of petroleum products in 2026 [7][8]. b. Demand - India exempts refineries in special economic zones from export taxes on diesel and aviation kerosene, and Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel policy [9]. c. Inventory - An oil storage tank in Haifa, Israel, was attacked, but the loss was minor. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased [10][11]. d. Market Information - The market's concern about long - term supply disruptions in the Middle East has increased, pushing Asian naphtha refining profits to a record high. Asian buyers are seeking alternative supply pricing mechanisms. Vietnam's refinery will put new oil storage tanks into use in May [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes various data charts such as WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and refinery operating rates [13][15][17].