瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined across the board. The main contract EC2606 closed down 6.74%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 7%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index was 1752.54, up 59.28 points from last week, a 3.5% increase. The Middle East situation has become tense again, increasing uncertainty risks. Oil prices remain above $110 per barrel, leading to high container transportation costs. The European route has maintained a detour pattern and is not affected by the potential blockade of the Mandeb Strait, causing the futures price increase to reverse. The 15 - week average quoted price is about $2400 for large containers, equivalent to about 1800 points. Shipping companies may try to hold up prices in April, but the increase is expected to be small due to the supply - demand pattern. The eurozone's January unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and inflation accelerated unexpectedly. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation have led to an increase in expectations of a tightening ECB policy. The market fully anticipates that the ECB will restart interest rate hikes in July. Overall, the geopolitical situation is undetermined, the detour expectation is gradually being realized, the fundamentals of the shipping industry have not changed, and the upward space in April is limited. Shipping companies' adjustment of freight rates has also decreased compared to before. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the continuation of the US - Iran conflict [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 1672.900, down 84.2; EC sub - main contract closing price was 2394.1, down 173.1. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 was - 721.20, up 91.40; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 was - 762.90, up 56.40. The EC contract basis was 79.64, up 46.80. The main contract position of EC was 5505, down 1524 [2] Spot Price - SCFIS (European route) (weekly) was 1752.54, up 59.28; SCFIS (US West route) (weekly) was 1826.77, unchanged; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1263.40, up 119.82. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1139.04, up 18.43; CCFI (European route) (weekly) was 1485.47, up 21.72. The Panama - type freight index (daily) was 2031.00, down 14.00; the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily) was 1756.00, down 14.00. The average charter price of Panama - type ships was unchanged; the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 22291.00, down 2304.00 [2] Industry News - US President Trump said that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations in Iran. Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. The White House Press Secretary said Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6 and intends to call on Arab countries to bear the costs of the US military operations against Iran. Iran stated that if its power facilities are attacked, it will cause a power outage in the entire region. Iran's President said that ending the war should be based on safeguarding national dignity, interests, and security. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran has not had any direct negotiations with the US so far and that the so - called "15 - point cease - fire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable". Iran will not participate in the war - related meeting led by Pakistan. Iran's First Vice - President warned Trump not to send troops to Kharg Island, saying that whether the US can withdraw troops will not be under its control. The Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament said that it is a "major mistake" for the US and Israel to threaten Iran, and Iran will make any aggressor pay a price under the command of the Supreme Leader [2] Key Points of Attention - On April 1, there are a series of economic data releases, including France's March manufacturing PMI final value at 15:50, Germany's March manufacturing PMI final value at 15:55, the eurozone's March manufacturing PMI final value at 16:00, the UK's March manufacturing PMI final value at 16:30, the eurozone's February unemployment rate at 17:00, the US's March ADP employment number (in ten thousand people) at 20:15, the US's February retail sales monthly rate at 20:30, and the US's March ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [2]