光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 3 月 31 日）-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The urea futures price showed a high - level firm and volatile trend on Monday. The supply is rising from a high level, and the demand can still be maintained, with obvious regional differentiation. The peak demand season will support the spot market, and the pattern of strong supply and demand will continue. However, due to factors such as the global political situation, energy prices, and domestic policies, the price has significant upward pressure. In the short term, the futures price will continue the high - level firm and volatile trend, lacking the driving force for a trending rise. It is necessary to focus on domestic demand, policies, international situations, and energy price changes [2]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price was weak on Monday. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is light and stable, and the downstream procurement intensity has weakened. After the mid - and downstream replenishment, the market demand is insufficient, and the enterprise inventory is increasing. The futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on cost changes, export expectations, international situations, energy price fluctuations, and overall market sentiment [2]. - Glass: The glass futures price showed a firm and volatile trend on Monday. The supply has certain support, and the demand is stabilizing. The market sentiment has locally slowed down, and most glass enterprises still face inventory - reduction pressure. The cost provides some support, and international factors are still changeable. The futures price is expected to continue the wide - range volatile trend, and it is necessary to focus on demand, the macro - environment, international political situations, and energy price fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Urea: The closing price of the main 05 contract of urea futures was 1,882 yuan/ton on Monday, with a 0.53% increase. The spot market was basically stable, with individual regions raising prices slightly. The supply rebounded from a high level, with a daily output of 21.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared to the previous day. The demand was still maintainable, with the spot sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream regions ranging from 30% to 100%. The short - term futures price will continue the high - level firm and volatile trend [2]. - Soda Ash: The closing price of the main 05 contract of soda ash futures was 1,207 yuan/ton on Monday, with a 1.71% decrease. The spot price was stable, and the trade price fluctuated with the market sentiment. The industry's operating rate was 82.80%, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous day. The demand was light and stable, and the downstream procurement intensity weakened. The enterprise inventory increased by 0.7% compared to last Thursday. The short - term futures price will maintain a wide - range volatile trend [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main 05 contract of glass futures was 1,040 yuan/ton on Monday, with a 0.39% increase. The spot market price was stable, and the daily melting volume decreased by 600 tons to 14.43 tons. The demand was stabilizing, and the market sentiment locally slowed down. The short - term futures price will continue the wide - range volatile trend [2]. Market Information - Urea: On March 30, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 8,707, with no change from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 150. The daily output of the urea industry was 21.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared to the previous day and 2.61 tons compared to the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 93.04%, an increase of 7.26 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some regions remaining flat and some raising prices [5]. - Soda Ash and Glass: On March 30, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 1,363, with no change from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,454; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 100, with no change from the previous day. The soda ash spot prices in different regions were provided. The operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.8%. The average price of the float glass market was 1,169 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day, and the daily output was 14.43 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous day [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as price spread charts and spot price trend charts. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][14][18][19][21][22]