铅或继续弱势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Lead may continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply of recycled lead is slowly recovering due to ongoing losses, but the expected decline in demand during the off - season will intensify the pressure of lead inventory accumulation, and the inflow of imports will also contribute to this situation. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of recycled lead production and domestic inventory conditions [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume of lead concentrate in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year, higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. In April, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/dry ton month - on - month. The domestic lead ore weekly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] Supply - In February, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In February 2026, the output of recycled refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. As of the week of March 27, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. At the end of March, smelters in Yunnan and other places that postponed resumption of production gradually produced output, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang and Henan was ramping up, with a clear increase in supply. The lead concentrate processing fee (TC) remained at a low level, and the by - product silver revenue declined, squeezing the profit space of smelters and limiting the motivation for further production increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 43.26%, a week - on - week increase of 3.69%. The price of waste batteries was firm, and the loss of recycled lead continued, with the loss margin narrowing slightly. Large factories in Anhui, Jiangxi and other places resumed production intensively in late March, driving the increase in the operating rate; but in Jiangsu, Hebei and other places, due to the intensification of losses, some small and medium - sized factories chose to reduce production or carry out maintenance at the end of the month. The operating rate of recycled lead may continue to climb slowly. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio rebounded, and the import of refined lead remained in a profitable state, and the overseas lead surplus pressure flowed into the domestic market [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces remained stable. Leading enterprises (such as Tianneng and Chaowei) maintained a production rate of over 80% or even full production to seize market share, but the operating rate of small and medium - sized factories has dropped to the range of 65% - 70% due to the decline in orders. On the raw material side, due to the fluctuating lead price and the approaching off - season, enterprises generally "buy on the rise rather than on the fall" and only maintain a safety inventory of 4 - 5 days; on the finished product side, due to the decline in the提货 willingness of dealers, the inventory days have increased significantly compared with February. April - May is the traditional off - season for lead consumption. With high finished product inventory, enterprises may shift from "production based on sales" to active production reduction, and the operating rate may decline [4] Spot - As of the week of March 27, the domestic lead spot basis changed from a premium to a discount, and the lead spot basis at the weekend was a discount of 65 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a discount of - 35.16 US dollars at the weekend [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 27, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 283,000 tons. The LME inventory declined from a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 57,579 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 30, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 60,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, at a moderately high level [4]