供应不确定性持续，碳酸锂波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply uncertainty of lithium carbonate persists, and its price volatility has intensified. The current supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in a tight - balance state. Short - term price volatility may increase due to factors such as the unclear duration of the Zimbabwean export ban, the progress of mine复产 in Jiangxi, uncertain improvement in new energy vehicle terminals, and macro - constraints. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center still has support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The main contract of lithium carbonate had an amplitude of over 8% today, and the price dropped significantly to around 160,000 yuan per ton. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight - balance state, but supply - related events are frequent, and the news continuously affects the market. There are repeated expectations about whether the Zimbabwean ore export ban will continue. If the export resumes, the supply fluctuations will be marginally reduced, which may suppress market sentiment and prices. The supply - demand changes of rough ore need to be dynamically evaluated and tracked [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Domestic production lines have quickly recovered, and production has continued to increase. The import of strong ore and lithium carbonate in the first quarter also maintained good growth, enhancing the overall supply capacity. However, resource fluctuations are frequent. The Zimbabwean ore export ban has lasted for nearly a month, and the recovery time is unclear. If the export restriction continues, the expectation of tight overseas ore supply will be strengthened, and domestic rough ore imports from May to June and later may be affected, supporting prices. If the export resumes in the short term, the impact may be mainly concentrated in May - June, and long - term concerns about supply fluctuations will be marginally alleviated, which may impact market sentiment. Additionally, the progress of mine复产 in Jiangxi still needs verification, and supply - side uncertainties remain [3] - Demand side: In March and April, the production schedules of cathodes and batteries remained high, supporting the demand for lithium carbonate. In terms of melting, the performance of energy storage is still optimistic. After a short - term weakening, new energy vehicles have an expected marginal improvement in the peak season, but the overall performance still needs further verification [3] - Inventory: The previous inventory continued to decline and recently increased slightly, but the overall level is still relatively low. In the context of frequent supply fluctuations, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate still maintains a tight - balance pattern [3] Summary and Strategy - From March to April, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate maintained a tight - balance. Due to factors such as the unclear duration of the Zimbabwean export ban, the progress of mine复产 in Jiangxi, uncertain improvement in new energy vehicle terminals, and macro - constraints, short - term price volatility may increase. The driving factors need to be observed. As long as the tight - balance of supply - demand is not broken, the medium - to - long - term price center still has support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In terms of strategy, while paying attention to buying opportunities during price corrections, risk control should be strengthened. Downstream enterprises can purchase at low prices or conduct appropriate hedging to control inventory and price risk exposures [4]