瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory of Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates, and downstream tire factories make cautious replenishments for mixed rubber [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. Some enterprises' pursuit of quarterly tasks supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but short - term maintenance arrangements of individual enterprises may slightly drag it down [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, a decrease of 9,869 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,489 lots, a decrease of 4,554 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,303 lots, a decrease of 516 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,770 lots, an increase of 522 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 43,545 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 78.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.99 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.05 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 79.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly starting rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly starting rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2] 3.7 Weather Conditions - In the first week of the future (March 29 - April 4, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. There is no red area north of the equator, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, with a weak impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red area is mainly concentrated in western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, with an enhanced impact on tapping [2] 3.8 Regional Production Situation - In the Yunnan Banna area in China, the weather is sunny, the glue prices are quoted differently, and there are signs of raw material grabbing. The Hainan area has started the new - year tapping season. In some southern and western areas, tapping has started sporadically, but the continuous high - temperature weather has restricted the tapping operation and glue output. Attention should be paid to the weather and rubber tree growth conditions at the beginning of tapping [2]