碳酸锂日报（2026年3月31日）-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 4.53% to 171,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,500 yuan/ton to 164,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 6,500 yuan/ton to 161,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 709 tons to 30,751 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 628 tons to 24,814 tons; the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated production of ternary materials in March increased by 19% to 84,360 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, other sectors decreasing by 660 tons to 35,500 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 724 tons to 17,332 tons [3]. - Recently, lithium ore prices have continued to strengthen, reflecting the reality and expectation of a tight supply at the ore end. The market is still worried about the lithium ore supply from Zimbabwe and Australia. If overseas supply - side risk events continue to ferment, the lithium ore supply gap may cause lithium ore prices to continue to strengthen, supporting lithium prices. The reduction in the actual supply of lithium carbonate may lead to inventory reduction, and the amplification of stocking and备货 coefficients may also drive the further invisibility of explicit inventory, driving prices to fluctuate and strengthen. However, it should be noted that from the current spot procurement and sales rhythm and inventory rhythm, if prices strengthen rapidly in the short term, the spot rhythm may slow down, causing a certain degree of divergence between futures and spot prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 171,620 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 170,060 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,313 US dollars/ton, up 83 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,575 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 164,500 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 161,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 151,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 157,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 139,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 18.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.15 US dollars [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price remained unchanged at 107,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 13,500 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 23,284 yuan/ton, down 3,812 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors decreased slightly, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly, while some remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 - 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metallic lithium , battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 - 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price Differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) in Asia and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 - 2026 [18][20]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [32][36]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from July 2025 - March 2026 [39][41]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 - 2026 [44].