市场快讯：生猪去产能进程缓慢，期货合约下修预期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all live hog futures contracts declined. As of the time of writing, the 2605 contract dropped to 9,830 yuan/ton with a 1.7% decline; the 2607 contract fell to 10,825 yuan/ton with a 2.6% decline; the 2609 contract decreased to 11,895 yuan/ton with a 3.96% decline; and the 2611 contract dropped to 12,225 yuan/ton with a 4.12% decline [4] - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in March continues, the weight pressure remains high, and the expectation of weight reduction by the breeding side under policy guidance increases, so the short - term hog price may remain at a low level. In the medium - term, the number of newly born piglets in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased month - on - month for three consecutive months, corresponding to a relief of supply pressure starting from April - June this year, and the impact of epidemics should be focused on. In the long - term, the limited decline in supply before October this year corresponding to the sow inventory and the continuous decline in piglet prices drive the downward shift of the expectations of far - month contracts [4] - Maintain the trading idea of the bottom - range. The near - month contracts continue to verify the support effect; the continuous decline in piglet prices leads to the further downward shift of the expectations of far - month contracts [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Driving Analysis - Short - term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in March continues, the weight pressure remains high, and the expectation of weight reduction by the breeding side under policy guidance increases, so the short - term hog price may remain at a low level [4] - Medium - term: The number of newly born piglets in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased month - on - month for three consecutive months, corresponding to a relief of supply pressure starting from April - June this year, and the impact of epidemics should be focused on [4] - Long - term: The limited decline in supply before October this year corresponding to the sow inventory and the continuous decline in piglet prices drive the downward shift of the expectations of far - month contracts [4] 3.2. Strategy Suggestions - Maintain the trading idea of the bottom - range. The near - month contracts continue to verify the support effect; the continuous decline in piglet prices leads to the further downward shift of the expectations of far - month contracts [5] - For the 2605 contract, the support is at 9,500 - 9,800, and the pressure is at 10,000 - 10,300. For the 2607 contract, the support is at 10,800 - 11,000, and if the support is effectively broken, it may open a downward space, with the pressure at 11,500 - 11,600. For the 2609 contract, the support is at 12,000 - 12,200, and if the support is effectively broken, it may open a downward space, with the pressure at 12,700 - 12,900. For the 2611 contract, the pressure is at 13,000 - 13,100, the support is at 12,500, and if the support is effectively broken, it may open a downward space. For the 2701 contract, the pressure is at 13,500 - 13,650, and the support is at 12,800 - 13,000 [5] - The early short positions can continue to be held, and it is not recommended to blindly buy at the bottom. Wait for the substantial capacity reduction process of the breeding side to arrive [5]