GF SECURITIES·2026-03-31 11:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [13][22]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.85 billion for 2025, representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase, with a non-recurring net profit of RMB 2.69 billion, up 51% year-on-year [8][9]. - The overseas cement business is experiencing significant growth, with a 25% increase in sales volume to 2.03 million tons in 2025, contributing to 33% of revenue and 46% of gross profit from overseas operations [10][11]. - The domestic cement business showed a slight improvement in profitability, with a projected sales volume of 4.165 million tons in 2025, down 5.5% year-on-year, but with expected gross margin improvement due to cost reductions [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 34.22 billion - 2025: RMB 35.35 billion - 2026: RMB 39.66 billion - 2027: RMB 42.53 billion - 2028: RMB 45.43 billion - Growth rates are projected at 1.4%, 3.3%, 12.2%, 7.3%, and 6.8% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 8.15 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.31 billion in 2028, reflecting a strong upward trend [2]. - The company’s net profit is projected to reach RMB 5.17 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.7% from 2026 to 2028 [2][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to be 10.4 in 2024, increasing to 17.9 in 2025, and then decreasing to 8.5 by 2028 [2][12]. - The estimated reasonable value for the company's A-shares is RMB 28.24 per share, while the H-shares are valued at HKD 21.33, based on a target P/E of 15 times for 2026 [13].