黑色商品日报（2026年3月31日）-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a stage of "cost push" and "demand suppression" game, with the price bottom rising but limited upward momentum. It is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillation trend in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by geopolitical factors and improved fundamentals. With both long and short factors at play, it is expected to continue a high - level oscillation in the short term [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by complex macro - factors. The coking coal market has reduced inventory pressure on the supply side and high replenishment enthusiasm on the demand side. The coke market has increased demand from steel mills but high raw material costs. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, cost changes, and production adjustments. With support from the cost side and certain supply - side expectations, they are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillation trend in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.48%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 99,700 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 0.25% to 6.6339 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.95% to 3.1539 million tons [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with 140,000 lots traded and a reduction of 16,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased due to a hurricane but gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased. The port inventory decreased by 147,350 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 550,000 tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (0.41%), with a decrease of 1113 lots in positions. Most mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, and the inventory pressure was relieved. Coke enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm was high [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.09%), with a decrease of 436 lots in positions. The port spot price of coke decreased. The cost of coking coal for coke enterprises was still high, and the demand from steel mills increased [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6588 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,315 lots to 366,900 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions increased. Due to rising manganese ore prices, the number of production - reducing and production - converting enterprises increased, and the开机率 decreased. The cost was relatively firm, but the inventory was under pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6066 yuan/ton, up 1.57% from the previous trading day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 4555 lots to 171,600 lots. The market price of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions increased. A silicon - iron furnace in Shaanxi was under maintenance. The total production in March was expected to be 451,400 tons, a 6.34% increase from the previous month and an 8.4% decrease from the same period last year. The cost increased, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The report provides the latest values and changes in contract spreads (such as 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months) and basis for various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - Profit and Spread: It also shows the latest values and changes in profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][8][10][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [16][17][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts presenting the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 05 - 10, 10 - 01) for different black commodities from 2018 to 2027 [25][27][31][32][34][35][37]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. - Rebar Profits: Charts present the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar main contracts from 2021 to 2026 [43][44][45][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and the combination of financial theory and industrial operations [50].