地缘影响有所消退，仓单压力压制煤焦

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical influence on coking coal and coke has subsided, and the warehouse receipt pressure has suppressed the performance of the coking coal and coke market. Although the short - term replenishment demand shows signs of weakening, the downstream rigid demand still exists, and the supply - demand contradiction in the short - term market is relatively limited. The 05 contract is mainly under pressure, while the 09 contract may rebound after falling to a low level [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Weakening of the Coking Coal and Coke Market - Geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, and the support of the energy substitution logic weakens. The U.S. President is willing to end the military action against Iran, causing the crude oil price to fall, and the coking coal and coke market also weakens following the energy substitution expectation [1] - The coking coal main contract is approaching delivery, and the warehouse receipt pressure makes the market continue to be under pressure. The trading logic has shifted from energy substitution expectation to warehouse receipt delivery pressure, and the 05 contract faces more obvious delivery pressure than the 01 contract, dragging down the far - month contracts [2] Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the short - term replenishment demand shows signs of weakening, but the steel mill profits are acceptable, and the iron - making production is expected to continue to increase. The downstream rigid demand for coking coal and coke still exists. Although imports remain at a high level, the increase in domestic coal mine production may not exceed expectations under policy regulation. The upstream inventory of coking coal and coke is relatively low year - on - year, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [2] - The 05 contract is mainly under pressure due to warehouse receipt pressure, but due to the remaining geopolitical fluctuations, there is still support below the market. The 09 contract is less affected by delivery, and there is still a possibility of rebound after the price drops to a low level following the 05 contract [2]