KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-03-31 11:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The integration of Minsheng Securities has significantly driven the company's performance, with a remarkable increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, which reached 2.01 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 405% [1] - The company has adjusted its market trading volume and price fluctuation assumptions, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2026-2028, with expected net profits of 2.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11%, 11%, and 8% [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.0 for 2025, and 0.9 for 2026 and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation as the integration progresses and business synergies enhance profitability and growth potential [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company's net income from brokerage business reached 2.1 billion yuan, up 193% year-on-year, with significant contributions from securities brokerage, seat trading, and distribution services [2] - The investment banking segment generated a net income of 900 million yuan, a 165% increase year-on-year, completing 10 equity financing projects, including 5 IPOs [2] - Asset management net income was 780 million yuan, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase, with total entrusted funds in securities asset management reaching 196 billion yuan, a 38% increase [2] - Investment income, including fair value changes, was 3.46 billion yuan, up 254% year-on-year, with a self-operated investment return rate of 5.11% [3] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 7.67 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.22 billion yuan in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.1% [4][7] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.35 yuan in 2025 to 0.47 yuan in 2028, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 25.9 to 19.3 [4][7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to stabilize around 4.2% to 4.7% from 2026 to 2028, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [4][7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at approximately 33% over the forecast period, reflecting effective cost management [4][7]