【冠通期货研究报告】尿素日报：现货市场稳定-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market opened low and trended weakly today, with stable factory shipments and prices. The supply is relatively abundant after the release of domestic daily production and national reserve supplies, while the downstream mainly relies on high - nitrogen compound fertilizers from compound fertilizer factories. The subsequent agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. The compound fertilizer factory's开工率 reached 51.24% as of March 27, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The urea inventory in factories is expected to continue to decline in the short term, and the market is characterized by strong supply and demand [1]. - The futures of the urea main 2605 contract opened at 1,880 yuan/ton, closed at 1,874 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.9%. The trading volume decreased, and the positions of both long and short decreased [2]. - On March 31, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained stable at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the May contract at - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [7]. - On March 31, 2026, the national daily urea production was 219,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67% [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The urea market opened low and trended weakly today. The factory shipments were stable, and the prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The international urea market is tight, while the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories, and the subsequent agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. The compound fertilizer factory's开工率 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The urea inventory in factories is expected to continue to decline in the short term, and the market is in a state of strong supply and demand [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2605 contract opened at 1,880 yuan/ton, closed at 1,874 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.9%. The trading volume decreased, and the positions of both long and short decreased. Among them, Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of - 2,961 hands, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of + 458 hands, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 1,428 hands, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of - 1,901 hands [2]. - Spot: The factory shipments were stable, and the prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipts - On March 31, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the May contract at - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On March 31, 2026, the national daily urea production was 219,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67% [8].