每日核心期货品种分析-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with some commodities like lithium carbonate and container shipping European routes experiencing significant drops, while some precious metals and agricultural products showed gains [6][7] - The market is significantly influenced by the Middle - East situation, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US - Iran conflict, which has an impact on the supply and price of commodities such as crude oil, asphalt, PP, and plastic [12][13][14] - The supply and demand patterns of various commodities are different. Some commodities are facing supply shortages due to external factors, while some are in a state of relatively balanced supply and demand or have inventory pressure [9][11][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 31, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 8%, container shipping European routes dropped nearly 7%, and LPG dropped nearly 6%. On the upside, silver futures rose over 3%, and gold futures and soybeans rose over 1% [6][7] - In terms of stock index futures, most contracts declined, while most treasury bond futures contracts rose or remained flat [7] - In terms of capital flow, silver 2606, CSI 2606, and ten - year treasury bond 2606 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, crude oil 2605, and palm oil 2605 had capital outflows [7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper opened high and closed low. Although the shortage of copper ore resources supports the price, the terminal demand feedback is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The CSPT did not set a reference price for the second - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - It opened low and closed low, with a nearly 8% decline. The supply side has potential increases, and the demand side's growth rate has slowed down. The situation of lithium mines in Zimbabwe and China will affect the market [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - The US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz issue, has a significant impact on the price. The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, and the risk of price increase still exists [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The supply side is under pressure, with a decline in the start - up rate and planned production. The demand side is gradually recovering. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate is slowly recovering, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a low level. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The start - up rate is at a low level, and the downstream is gradually resuming production. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream has a resistance to high - priced raw materials. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. It is recommended to wait and see [20][22] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - It opened low and closed low. The domestic mine production is recovering, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The market has a low acceptance of high - price coking coal, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the crude oil and conflict situation [23] 3.2.9 Urea - It opened low and closed low, with a weak performance. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is mainly from compound fertilizer factories. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the impact of the situation change is small [24][25]