冠通期货研究报告：养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260331

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Northeast soybean spot prices are weak, with more market circulation and sparse trading, but the state - reserve auction provides price reference and bottom support, and short - term prices are expected to be in shock adjustment with obvious bottom support [1] - Shandong corn prices rose slightly, while Northeast corn continued to decline weakly. There is a certain price correction pressure in the spot market, and short - term prices may be adjusted, but the downward space is limited [1] - The egg market is entering the off - season, with stable supply due to high laying rates and high inventory. Near - month contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and far - month contracts may fall if the chicken culling is not as expected [2] - The state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage, but short - term supply pressure remains high. The supply of live pigs will be in excess from March to May, and there is an expectation of a price rebound at the end of the third quarter, but near - month pressure is huge [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are weak, with more market circulation and sparse trading. The state - reserve auction at 4500 yuan/ton last Thursday had a transaction rate of over 60%, providing price reference and bottom support. Short - term prices are expected to be in shock adjustment [1] Corn - Shandong corn prices rose slightly, and Northeast corn continued to decline weakly. There was a high volume of corn in North China last weekend to this week, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises gradually accumulated. Today, the arrival volume decreased, and the price decline slowed down. In the Northeast, the sales of ground - stored grain are coming to an end, and the supply has increased recently. Spot prices have correction pressure, and short - term prices may be adjusted, but the downward space is limited [1] Egg - The egg market is entering the off - season. The current laying rate is about 92.71%, and it is expected to remain stable. The inventory is high, and the supply pressure persists. After the sharp rise in futures last week, there has been a continuous adjustment in the past two days, and the price difference between futures and spot is narrowing. Near - month contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and far - month contracts may fall if the chicken culling is not as expected [2] Pig - The state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage to promote price stability. However, short - term supply pressure remains high. The supply of live pigs will be in excess from March to May due to the high inventory of sows in the second quarter of last year. There is an expectation of a price rebound at the end of the third quarter, but near - month pressure is huge, and both near - and far - month contracts are in a deep adjustment period [3][4]