中东断供进行时：海峡恢复是核心定价因素

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted the crude oil market, with the interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz being the main factor. The duration of the strait's interruption is the key to determining the future risk premium level of oil prices [74]. - If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts, and OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity of about 3 million barrels per day cannot be effectively released [23][36]. - The release of the IEA's strategic petroleum reserve can provide short - term supply buffering, but the inventory distribution is uneven, and different markets have different capabilities to withstand the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz [42]. - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth, while South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly [62][70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Middle East Oil Export and Strait of Hormuz Impact - The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 27% of global crude oil and petroleum product exports. In 2025, the daily transportation volume of crude oil and petroleum products through the strait reached 1,491 million barrels and 332 million barrels respectively. The major Middle East oil - producing countries are highly dependent on the strait for oil exports [5][7]. - 83% of the crude oil and petroleum products exported through the Strait of Hormuz flow to Asia. Crude oil exports are concentrated in Asia (86%), while petroleum product exports are relatively more dispersed, with Asia accounting for 61%, and Europe and Africa each accounting for 16% [8][12]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. In the four weeks before the conflict, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was at a low level. In the week of March 29, the crude oil transportation volume through the strait was about 7% of the normal level [23]. Bypass Routes for Oil Export - Some countries can use over - land pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for partial exports. Saudi Arabia's "East - West Oil Pipeline" has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day after expansion, and the estimated stable loading capacity of Yanbu Port is 4.3 - 4.5 million barrels per day, with a maximum export capacity of 5 - 5.5 million barrels per day. However, the south - bound route of Yanbu Port passes through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and some oil tankers may face the risk of attack by the Houthi armed forces [15]. - The ADCOP pipeline in the UAE has an estimated capacity of 1.5 - 1.8 million barrels per day. Since 2024, the increase in the pipeline's utilization rate has led to an increase in the crude oil export volume of Fujairah Port to about 1.15 million barrels per day, accounting for about 33% of the UAE's total exports. However, the high utilization rate of the pipeline limits its remaining capacity to divert the transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and Fujairah Port has been reported to have been attacked multiple times since the conflict [15]. - Iraq used to export about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day through the Ceyhan Port in Turkey, which was once interrupted. Since last October, the export volume has recovered to 150,000 - 200,000 barrels per day. Recently, due to Iraq's production cuts, the loading at the Botas Ceyhan terminal has also been affected [15]. Iran's Oil Export Situation - 94% of Iran's crude oil exports come from Kharg Island. Although the military facilities on the island were attacked by the United States, the export terminal was not damaged, and the loading volume has remained at a normal level since the conflict. Iran's crude oil export volume is expected to remain stable at about 1.6 million barrels per day, and the total amount of Iranian crude oil at sea is 180 million barrels, with the floating storage inventory of those floating for more than 15 days dropping to about 24 million barrels [18]. Impact on Oil Production and Supply - The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts due to the depletion of on - land storage capacity. Iraq and Kuwait are the most affected due to the lack of bypass capabilities, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also announced different degrees of production restrictions [36]. - The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz will also result in about 3 million barrels per day of OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity being unable to be effectively released to the market, further reducing the supply buffer [36]. Global Oil Inventory and Product Inventory - After the global seaborne crude oil in - transit volume decreases, the consumption of on - land inventory will accelerate. As of the end of March, the total global on - land inventory (excluding countries along the Persian Gulf) was about 2.8 billion barrels, and the overall level of global on - land crude oil inventory is not high [42]. - The gasoline inventory in Europe and the United States is slightly higher than the five - year average, while the diesel inventory level is relatively low. The price of middle distillates has risen more sharply after the conflict, and Europe faces a greater risk of supply shortage due to its relatively high dependence on aviation kerosene and diesel from the Middle East [45]. IEA's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release - As of the end of December 2025, the IEA's government inventory was 1.245 billion barrels, and the industry inventory was 2.826 billion barrels. On March 11, the IEA announced the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves, about 400 million barrels [51]. - The United States plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil SPR in the form of "swap" within 120 days (1.435 million barrels per day) and requires enterprises to replenish the reserves in full by March 2028. Europe plans to release 34.4 million barrels of crude oil and 73.1 million barrels of petroleum products, and Asia - Pacific countries plan to release 65.2 million barrels of crude oil and 43.4 million barrels of petroleum products [51]. Asian Market and Sanction Oil - Asian countries generally have a high degree of dependence on crude oil imports from the Persian Gulf, and the seaborne import proportion of major consumers is over 40%. In the case of continuous supply interruption in the Middle East, the problem of supply mismatch in the market segmented by sanctioned oil may become more prominent [56]. - Even if the United States temporarily relaxes sanctions, the settlement problem of sanctioned oil, especially Iranian crude oil, may still limit buyers' purchases. The threat of drone attacks on Russian ports has also increased, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect Russia's export volume [61]. Long - term Supply Growth Potential - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth. If the long - term oil price center moves up, the growth rate of U.S. production may accelerate. The average oil price required for profitable drilling in the Permian region is 67 US dollars per barrel [67]. - South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly. Brazil's annual crude oil production is expected to rise to 4.2 million barrels per day, with an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day [70]. Oil Price Outlook - The passage of the Strait of Hormuz will be the decisive factor in determining the future risk premium level of oil prices. The interruption of the strait has had a substantial impact on the market supply, and the duration of the interruption is the key to testing energy security [74]. - In the short - term, the oil price may remain highly volatile as the expectations of "progress in negotiations" and "escalation of military operations" alternate. If the conflict ends quickly, the risk premium will significantly decline [74]. - In the long - term, the restoration of supply in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East is expected to be gradual, and the oil price fluctuation range is expected to fall to 80 - 100 US dollars per barrel, with the center higher than the pre - conflict level [74].