沪铜日报：窄幅整理-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed lower, with a decline on the day. The shortage of copper resources due to tight overseas copper mines and difficult shipments still supports the copper price. The substitution of recycled copper has declined, and the production of electrolytic copper has increased. The demand for copper products has started to pick up, but the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. However, the Shanghai copper is under pressure from overseas imports, and its support is somewhat weak [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In terms of futures, Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, with a decline on the day. In terms of spot, the spot premium in East China was - 50 yuan/ton, and in South China was 95 yuan/ton. On March 30, 2026, the LME official price was 12,220 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 83 US dollars/ton [1][4]. 2. Supply - side - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 69.22 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [1][7]. 3. Demand - side - After entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the start - up of copper products has increased. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year [1]. 4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 221,300 tons, a decrease of 9,710 tons from the previous period. As of March 30, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 362,400 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 588,100 short tons, a decrease of 798 short tons from the previous period [10].