Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for RoboSense (02498.HK) with a target price of HKD 46.10, adjusted from a previous target of HKD 48.50 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - RoboSense achieved a revenue of RMB 7.57 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.1%. This quarter also marked the company's first-ever profit, indicating a significant operational turnaround driven by the benefits of its digital product platform, cost reductions from in-house chip development, and an optimized revenue mix [3][7]. - The company is expected to see substantial growth in the shipment of its ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) LiDAR products, particularly with the introduction of new models EMX and EM4, which are anticipated to replace older models and drive demand in 2026 [6][7]. - The report highlights three key growth catalysts for 2026: continued growth in ADAS LiDAR, expansion in the robotics sector, and sustained profitability despite competitive pricing pressures [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for RoboSense are as follows: RMB 1,941 million for 2025, RMB 3,472 million for 2026, RMB 4,498 million for 2027, and RMB 5,484 million for 2028, indicating a significant growth trajectory [10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from RMB 514.2 million in 2025 to RMB 1,530.2 million by 2028, with gross margins projected to remain relatively stable between 20% and 25% for ADAS LiDAR products [10][11]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 55.9 million for 2026, a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 145.0 million in 2025, with further growth expected in subsequent years [10][11].
速腾聚创：双引擎增长交付-20260331