软商品日报-20260331

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides an analysis of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each commodity [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the Wenhua Commodity Index dropped significantly. Spot basis remained stable, but spot trading demand was weak. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The domestic peak season showed good performance, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well - digested. The short - term pure cotton yarn sales slowed down. Mid - term, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish strategy [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. The market focuses on Brazil's sugar production forecast. After the rainy season, the rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil is low, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season is expected to decline, so the sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, the production progress in Guangxi this year is slow, and the production is lower than the same period last year. However, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season. The sugar sales of sugar mills this year are poor. In general, the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas decreased, and the trading volume in Shandong was small. As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The trading logic is mainly on the demand side. The demand in the northwest producing areas is good, but the apples in Shandong have poor quality and high purchase prices, which may affect the de - stocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber WR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also decreased. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate continued to decline rapidly. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the production and transportation cost pressure of domestic tire enterprises increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 69.14 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see and grasp the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded but then declined. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, a 980,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase. The overseas quotation of pulp is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The domestic pulp demand is generally average, and the procurement of high - price broad - leaf pulp is cautious. The short - term pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, and the domestic spot price was relatively weak. The downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. As of March 27, the national port log total inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease. The low inventory supports the price to a certain extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]