中银香港：息差回升夯实业绩韧性-20260331

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's net interest income growth is improving, with a stable recovery in interest margins, which supports the resilience of its performance [6][7]. - The company has a robust strategy in place, with a three-year shareholder return plan approved by the board, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6]. - The report projects a target price of HKD 52.79, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of HKD 45.59, based on a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.47 for 2026 [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 77,019 million, representing an 8.09% year-on-year growth [5][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be HKD 40,121 million, with a growth rate of 4.94% [5][17]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to stabilize at 1.14% for 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 96% [9][17]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS) from HKD 3.79 in 2025 to HKD 5.19 by 2028 [5][17]. Asset Quality and Cost Control - The company has maintained a solid asset quality, with a year-end NPL ratio of 1.14% and a credit cost of 0.49% for 2025, indicating effective risk management [9][17]. - The cost-to-income ratio is projected to be 23.6% for 2025, showing continued efficiency in cost control [9][17]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is expected to be 24.01% at the end of 2025, reflecting a strong capital position [9][17].