HTSC·2026-03-31 14:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 28.5 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.8 billion RMB, up 72% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations [1][2] - The company's strong performance is driven by robust growth in investment, brokerage, and investment banking businesses, with a notable quarterly net profit of 3.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase and a 44% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][2] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in capital market activity, with an attractive current valuation [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year reached 9.8 billion RMB, a significant improvement of 72% year-on-year, while total assets grew to 782.8 billion RMB, up 16% year-on-year [2] - The leverage ratio at year-end was 5.35x, an increase of 0.37x from the beginning of the year, indicating a more aggressive use of leverage throughout the year [2] - Financial investments were the main driver of asset expansion, with a year-end financial investment scale of 426.7 billion RMB, up 15% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - Investment business revenue reached 14.2 billion RMB, a 40% increase year-on-year, making it the largest revenue source for the company [4] - Investment banking revenue was 5 billion RMB, up 63% year-on-year, with Q4 2025 showing a remarkable 103% year-on-year increase [4] - Brokerage business revenue increased by 45% year-on-year to 6.2 billion RMB, benefiting from heightened market activity [4] International Business - The company's international business showed strong performance, with total assets of 238.3 billion RMB, accounting for 30% of the group's total assets [5] - International business revenue reached 8.4 billion RMB, a 58% year-on-year increase, contributing 29% to total revenue [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects net profits of 11.4 billion RMB, 13 billion RMB, and 14.3 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with significant upward adjustments of 28% for 2026 and 2027 [6] - The target price is set at 43.60 RMB and 24.69 HKD, reflecting a premium valuation based on the company's strong growth and competitive international business [6]