能源与碳中和季度报告：地缘冲突主导，二季度或中枢上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current LPG market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and it is difficult to make judgments without considering the geopolitical situation. The development of the geopolitical situation will determine whether the Strait of Hormuz will be open for passage. As of March 31, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and there is a possibility of further escalation of the conflict, which may drive LPG prices higher. The overall strategy is to go long at low prices. It is expected that the price of the domestic PG main contract will test the previous high again, with a reference target price of 7,400 yuan, and the reference target price for the overseas FEI main continuous contract is 1,000 US dollars. If the military conflict has a clear outcome, the Strait of Hormuz may open, leading to a price correction. However, even if the strait is解封, it will take time for the reduced associated LPG supply to return to the pre - conflict level, and the overall supply will still be tight year - on - year, making it difficult for the price center to return to the beginning - of - year level. In the medium term, if the geopolitical disturbances subside and the Middle East supply recovers well, the LPG price in the second quarter may be the annual high. In the second half of the year, as the US terminal export capacity expands and there is a possibility of combustion demand being replaced by other energy sources, the supply - demand margin will widen significantly compared to the second quarter under geopolitical conflicts [3][4][60] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Market Review - In Q1 2026, the LPG market was characterized by "unexpected" events. Geopolitical contradictions in the Middle East led to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the prices of energy and chemical products to rise and fluctuate sharply. From January to February, the market focused on the contradiction between the restocking demand of PDH plants in China under low - profit and low - inventory conditions and the sufficient shipments from the US and the Middle East. The prices of domestic and overseas markets fluctuated widely within a range. In March, the geopolitical conflict escalated, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the global LPG trade structure, turning the market from oversupply to significant undersupply. The domestic PG contract followed the upward trend of energy and chemical products in March, but the market start was delayed. As the blockade continued, the domestic PG contract saw a supplementary increase [13][14] 3.2 Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape the H1 2026 Supply Pattern 3.2.1 US Terminal Constraints on Export Growth and Difficult Inventory Reduction - US LPG supply increased by 7.1% year - on - year from January to February, and the growth rate of oil and gas field LPG was 7.5%. The STEO report in March was too conservative in its production forecast. With the increase in crude oil prices in March, it is expected to stimulate more crude oil production and increase NGLs output. The weekly production of propane and propylene in the US reached a high of 2.89 million barrels per day in early March, a 3% increase from February. The overall US LPG supply is in line with the initial expectations, with an estimated annual production growth rate of 4.3% in 2026, slightly down 0.2%. The domestic demand in the US is normal. Due to the increase in supply and stable demand, the US propane inventory is difficult to reduce and may enter a stockpiling channel, with the absolute level 70% higher than the same period last year. The export in Q1 was normal, but the current terminal export capacity is insufficient, and the next terminal capacity expansion is not expected until June. It is estimated that the propane inventory will reach 100 million barrels in the middle of the year [21][22] 3.2.2 Uncertainty in Middle East Q2 Exports - As of March 22, 2026, the total LPG exports from the Middle East were 8.85 million tons, and the Q1 exports are expected to be around 9 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a huge impact on Middle East LPG exports, and it is difficult to bypass the strait. The subsequent export volume in the second quarter depends on the resumption of passage in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, major oil - producing countries in the Middle East have reduced their crude oil production due to the inability to export. The total crude oil production reduction of four major Middle East oil - producing countries may reach up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 7% of the global crude oil production. The LPG production of Qatar's gas fields is expected to be damaged by 13%, with a monthly production loss of about 100,000 tons. When the strait is blocked, the monthly export volume of the Middle East may be 550,000 - 730,000 tons. After the strait is解封 and before the crude oil production recovers, the estimated monthly export volume is about 3.6 million tons [33][34][35] 3.3 Q2 Demand Under Pressure, Performance Depends on Supply Recovery 3.3.1 Impact on Asian Demand Under Continuous Strait Blockade - Under the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East LPG supply is cut off. Asian demand is significantly affected, mainly in India's combustion demand and China's chemical demand. India is the most affected country, with about 90% of its LPG imports from the Middle East and used for combustion. China imports about 50% of its LPG from the Middle East for chemical use. India's LPG arrivals have declined since March 15, and China's imports are expected to be affected in April. If the blockade persists, there is a possibility of permanent substitution of combustion demand by other energy sources and demand loss due to economic impact [38][39] 3.3.2 Good Demand Performance Excluding Geopolitical Impact - Excluding March, which was significantly affected by geopolitical events, the import volume of Asian countries in January and February showed stable growth, with a 3.4% year - on - year increase in the total imports of China, Japan, South Korea, and India. India's imports in January and February were in line with expectations, but were significantly affected in March. Japan and South Korea's imports increased by about 9% year - on - year in January and February but declined in March. China's imports were weak in January and February due to low PDH plant profits and low开工 rates. The PDH开工 rate is expected to drop to 50% in April, further reducing propane demand [45][46] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Summary 3.4.1 Significant Shortage Under Continuous Blockade - Under the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East supply drops to about 650,000 tons per month, far lower than the monthly average of 4 million tons in 2025. Even with a 150,000 - ton - per - month increase in US exports in the first half of the year, the supply gap cannot be filled. To achieve supply - demand balance, demand destruction through high prices is necessary. India's minimum necessary import volume and available inventory days for LPG will determine the market's actual spot liquidity [57] 3.4.2 Market Balance in the Transition Phase After Strait Reopening - In the transition phase after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, assuming the crude oil production reduction of major oil - producing countries remains at 6.7 million barrels per day, the Middle East supply will improve significantly to 3.6 million tons per month. Asian combustion demand can be fully met, and the balance mainly depends on the marginal adjustment of chemical demand. With the expected 50% PDH开工 rate in April, the reduction in propane demand is about 500,000 tons per month, which offsets the LPG supply loss in the Middle East. Coupled with the 150,000 - ton - per - month increase in US supply, there is room for a 5% increase in the PDH开工 rate or for major combustion - demand countries like India to replenish their safety inventories. However, if the geopolitical conflict intensifies and causes long - term damage to oil and gas facilities, the LPG supply loss in the Middle East needs to be further adjusted. It will take at least 1 - 2 weeks for the main Middle East supply to return to the market after the strait is reopened, and this period may be the most chaotic [58] 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In terms of supply, the US maintains a high - level export, but the terminal capacity bottleneck restricts further export growth, leading to inventory accumulation. Middle East supply is limited under the current strait blockade, and the actual supply level in the second quarter is highly uncertain. On the demand side, the current undersupplied market is testing India's minimum necessary LPG import volume for combustion and inventory levels, and China's PDH chemical demand is under pressure, with the开工 rate expected to drop to about 50% in April. The LPG price is expected to rise further if the conflict escalates, with the domestic PG main contract price testing the previous high of 7,400 yuan and the overseas FEI main continuous contract price reaching 1,000 US dollars. After the conflict is resolved and the strait is reopened, the price may correct, but the supply will remain tight year - on - year, and the price center may not return to the beginning - of - year level. In the medium term, if geopolitical disturbances subside, the second - quarter LPG price may be the annual high, and the supply - demand margin will widen in the second half of the year [59][60]