鸡蛋日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales, but considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3727, down 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3440, down 13; JD09 closed at 3778, down 11 [2]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 287, up 9; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 338, down 2; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 51, down 7 [2]. - Ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.01. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.18, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.26, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices were stable or falling [4]. - 淘汰鸡 Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of culled chickens was 5.02 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the cost of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2449 yuan, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3260 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.69 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was 11.71 yuan, down 3.75 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Production and Sales: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in February was about 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - Chicken Culling: In the week of March 19, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 15.4 million, an increase of 5.8% from the previous week. The average culling age was 505 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Sales Volume: As of the week of March 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6898 tons, an increase of 7.2% from the previous week, in the middle - low position of the same period over the years [5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of March 19, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a recovery of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 10.39 yuan per chicken, a recovery of 0.2 yuan per chicken from the previous week. The average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7].