铁合金日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 31, ferroalloy futures prices dropped significantly. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5874, down 3.17% with a decrease of 12,660 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 6444, down 2.19% with a decrease of 13,279 in open interest [5]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price on March 31 was stable to weak, with prices in some regions dropping by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply is currently at a low level, but production is expected to increase due to profit recovery. Demand from the steel industry is rising as steel inventories decline seasonally and steel apparent demand and hot metal production increase. The cost of electricity in major production areas is stable. The fundamentals of silicon - iron show both supply and demand increasing, and it is highly affected by crude oil price fluctuations, currently in high - level volatile operation [5]. - For manganese - silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable to strong on March 31, with the semi - carbonate ore at Tianjin Port rising by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, while manganese - silicon spot prices generally dropped by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply may remain low in the short term due to new maintenance in some enterprises. Demand from the steel industry is still increasing. The cost is affected by high - level crude oil prices, which increase transportation costs and may affect mining and transportation. The bottom support for manganese ore remains until the energy crisis is resolved [5]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility affected by sharp oil price fluctuations; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market - SF main contract: closed at 5874, down 192 for the day and 226 for the week, with a trading volume of 166,212 (up 30,141) and an open interest of 171,561 (down 12,660) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 6444, down 144 for the day and 36 for the week, with a trading volume of 359,939 (up 48,953) and an open interest of 353,594 (down 13,279) [3]. - Spot Market - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged and in Tianjin dropped by 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon prices in Inner Mongolia rose by 30 yuan/ton, in Ningxia dropped by 50 yuan/ton, in Guangxi remained unchanged, in Jiangsu dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin dropped by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis/Spread - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 174 (up 162 for the day and 176 for the week); SF - SM spread was - 570 (down 48 for the day and 190 for the week) [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 114 (up 174 for the day and 166 for the week) [3]. - Raw Materials - Manganese ore: Australian lump remained at 47 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 for the week), South African semi - carbonate rose by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and Gabonese lump remained at 47.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 for the week) [3]. - Blue charcoal small materials: prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged for the day, with increases of 65, 10, and 65 yuan/ton respectively for the week [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: High - level volatility affected by sharp oil price fluctuations [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - Important Information - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of manganese - silicon at 6580 yuan/ton, with a tender quantity of 2000 tons, delivered to the factory including acceptance and tax [7]. - Inner Mongolia Baite Metallurgical Building Materials Co., Ltd. reduced production of one 42000KVA manganese - silicon alloy submerged arc furnace from the night of March 31, actually affecting the daily output of manganese - silicon by 300 tons [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Price Difference Diagrams - Silicon - iron monthly spread: The current 1 - 2 spread is 40, 2 - 3 spread is - 126, etc. [11]. - Manganese - silicon monthly spread: The current 1 - 2 spread is - 32, 2 - 3 spread is - 64, etc. [13]. - Basis Diagrams - Silicon - iron basis (main contract - Inner Mongolia) and other related basis diagrams [16]. - Manganese - silicon basis (main contract - Inner Mongolia) and other related basis diagrams [16]. - Spot Price Diagrams - 72% silicon - iron spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai [16]. - 6517 manganese - silicon spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [16]. - Electricity Price Diagram - Ferroalloy electricity prices in Gansu, Guangxi, and other regions, with little change recently [17]. - Cost and Profit Diagrams - Silicon - iron production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc. [18]. - Manganese - silicon production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc. [21].