天然气市场基本面分析和展望：当前波动率回归是在为下一次上涨做准备

Report Title - Natural Gas Market Fundamental Analysis and Outlook - The Current Volatility Reversion is Preparing for the Next Uptrend [1] Report Author - Jin Xiao, Chief Analyst of Energy and Carbon Neutrality at Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The biggest influencing factor for the Q2 market trend is still the change in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The divergence of major natural gas benchmarks is expected to continue in Q2 [2]. - The US natural gas market is in a slightly tight balance, and the NYMEX gas price will mostly fluctuate around 3 USD/MMBtu in Q2, with limited downside and potential upside in summer [2]. - The key for the European and Asian markets is to replenish sufficient inventories during the off - season after the Qatar gas interruption. Volatility may revert in Q2, and if the Middle East situation doesn't improve, TTF and JKM may test the 30 USD/MMBtu mark in June [2]. Market Analysis by Region US Market - The US natural gas market balance indicates a slightly tight balance. Supply will grow significantly in 2026, and there won't be a large supply - demand gap [2]. - External demand for US LNG is strong due to Qatar's production halt, and exports to Mexico's PNG will increase, but there are capacity limitations [2]. - The demand of the US gas - fired power generation, the most important downstream, is sensitive to gas prices. Current gas prices neither encourage nor drag it [2]. - The NYMEX gas price will mostly remain around 3 USD/MMBtu in Q2, with limited downside and potential for an upward trend in summer [2]. European and Asian Markets - After the Qatar gas interruption, the focus is to replenish sufficient inventories in the off - season for the 26/27 heating season. Each day of Qatar's production halt requires price adjustment in the European and Asian gas markets [2]. - Volatility may revert in Q2, and if the Middle East situation doesn't improve, a significant increase in volatility may occur in June, and TTF and JKM may test the 30 USD/MMBtu mark [2]. Data Tables and Charts Qatar LNG Export Data - Qatar's LNG export volume data from 2022 - 2026 is presented in a chart [8]. - The export structure in 2025 shows destinations such as China, India, South Korea, etc. [10] European Market Data - Data on PNG from Norway, Russia and other sources, LNG, production, demand, and inventory changes from 2021 - 2026F are provided [13]. - Charts show GIE EU natural gas storage utilization rate, EU - 27+UK LNG import volume, Russian LNG export volume and its exports to Europe, EU power generation by power source, and EU gas - fired power generation [15][18][20][24] Asian Market Data - Data on China's domestic gas, imported pipeline gas, imported LNG, total demand, and demand by sector from 2022 - 2026F are presented [26]. - Charts show Northeast Asia (China, Japan, South Korea) LNG import volume, China's LNG import volume, Japan and South Korea's LNG import volume [27][29][32] US Market Data - Data on US dry gas production, PNG imports from Canada, total supply, demand by sector, LNG and PNG exports, and inventory changes from 2020 - 2026E are provided [33]. - Charts show the relationship between US dry gas production and HH, US natural gas inventory deviation and Nymex front - month contract, US power generation growth rate by power source, US power industry's natural gas consumption, and US LNG export volume [34][37][45][48]