宏源期货：宏源期货-2026-03-30涨跌

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of near - end iron ore is supported by factors such as the decrease in Australian shipments due to hurricanes, the increase in Brazilian shipments, the improvement of molten iron production after the Two Sessions, and the enhanced expectation of rising shipping costs caused by geopolitical conflicts. However, the medium - and long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Rate and Spot Price - The basis rate of I2701 on March 31, 2026, was 769.0, down 2.5 from March 30; the basis rate of I2605 was 808.0, down 5.0; the basis rate of I2609 was 786.5, down 2.0. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties also showed different degrees of decline, such as the price of Jinbuba powder dropped from 737 to 730, a decrease of 7.0 [1] 2. Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index decreased by 21, Mysteel 62% index decreased by 30, Mysteel 58% index decreased by 21. Import profits of different varieties also changed, for example, the import profit of Newman powder increased by 0.11 [1] 3. MS Inventory - The total iron ore inventory on March 27, 2026, was 17000, down 98 from March 20. Australian ore inventory decreased by 8, Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 44, and trader inventory decreased by 53 [1] 4. Strategy - Night - session review: The futures price of iron ore i2605 closed at 815 yuan/ton, i2609 at 792.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 777 (-7) yuan/ton, and the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, was 789 yuan after discounting the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] - Important information: From March 23 to March 29, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 120.7 tons to 1273.7 tons. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range. On March 31, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports increased by 98.5% month - on - month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. As of now, there are about 300 coking production enterprises in China, with a total coke production capacity of about 5.70 billion tons. In mid - March, the output of key coal enterprises increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - Trading strategy: Volatile [2]