碳酸锂季度策略报告-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, attention should be paid to potential disruptions in overseas resource supply, such as the shipping situation of lithium mines in Australia and Zimbabwe. The vehicle market in the first quarter was affected by policy - driven pre - consumption and the late Spring Festival, but it is expected to improve marginally in the second quarter. The increase in battery capacity can offset some of the negative impact on lithium salt consumption. After excluding individual project interferences, the winning bid prices in the energy storage sector have slightly increased, and price transmission is still ongoing. If overseas supply - side risk events continue to develop, it may lead to a shortage of lithium ore supply, which will push up lithium prices, reduce the actual supply of lithium carbonate, and make the inventory more invisible. In the long - term, the price center will still move up, and it is recommended to consider bottom - fishing [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In the first quarter, the price of lithium carbonate twice reached above 180,000 yuan/ton and then declined, fluctuating around 150,000 yuan/ton. Factors affecting the price include strong macro - sentiment, mismatch between spot and futures average prices, strong downstream orders and low inventory, pre - festival stocking, concerns about supply shortages due to the suspension of lithium ore shipping in Zimbabwe, slow de - stocking, poor terminal data, and overseas supply disturbances [9][11][12]. 3.2 Inventory - In the first quarter, lithium ore and lithium salts generally showed a continuous de - stocking trend, with the overall de - stocking speed first increasing and then decreasing. By the end of March, the social inventory turnover days decreased to 27.9 days, and there was obvious restocking in the downstream [6][9][25]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the import profit of lithium carbonate, theoretical delivery profit, theoretical delivery profit of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, export profit of lithium hydroxide, and外购 production profit [28][29]. 3.4 Lithium Resources - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of lithium concentrate was 1.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The cumulative export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 49,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%, of which 39,300 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year increase of 26%, accounting for 79% of the export. The cumulative export of lithium sulfate was 39,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 221%, and almost all were exported to China. The cumulative domestic production of lithium mica was 29,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the cumulative production of lithium spodumene by sample enterprises was 14,700 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 127%, with a total cumulative production of lithium ore of 43,700 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 28% [31][43][44]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium carbonate was 287,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.8%. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 176,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; from lithium mica was 38,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%; from salt lakes was 46,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.3%; and from recycling was 28,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. From January to February, the cumulative import was 53,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64% [4][9][47]. 3.6 Lithium Hydroxide - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium hydroxide was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20%. Among them, the smelting production was 69,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and the causticizing production was 11,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124% [9][55]. 3.7 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 75,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34% [9][58]. 3.8 Ternary Precursor - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of ternary precursor was 255,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%. The proportion of the 6 - series and 9 - series increased significantly, while the 5 - series decreased. From January to February, the export was 11,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the import was 200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17% [9][66]. 3.9 Ternary Material - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of ternary material was 236,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47%. The proportion of the 6 - series and 9 - series increased significantly, while the 5 - series decreased. From January to February, the cumulative export was 22,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 88%, and the import was 11,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 108% [9][68]. 3.10 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59% [9][71]. 3.11 Other Materials - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of cobalt - acid lithium was 21,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28%; the cumulative production of manganese - acid lithium was 34,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [9][74]. 3.12 Lithium Battery - In the first quarter, the cumulative production of lithium batteries was 572 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 51%. Among them, the production of ternary batteries was 90 GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 5%; the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 455 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%; and the production of other batteries was 27 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 114%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative installed capacity of lithium batteries was 68.3 GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative export of lithium batteries was 48 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 24% [5][9][77]. 3.13 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from January to February, the retail sales of passenger cars were 1.06 million, a year - on - year decrease of 26%; the wholesale sales were 1.59 million, a year - on - year decrease of 8%; the export was 555,000, a year - on - year increase of 116%, and the penetration rate was 42%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04. In March, the expected retail sales were 900,000, and the expected penetration rate was 52.9%, and the sales of new - energy vehicles in China officially exceeded that of fuel vehicles. From January to February 2026, the average battery capacity per new - energy vehicle was 62.0 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 29.2%. In February, the overall inventory situation improved, and the battery capacity increased significantly. From January to February, the cumulative sales of new - energy heavy trucks were 23,500, a year - on - year increase of 54%; the cumulative sales of domestic new - energy heavy - truck operating licenses were 27,666, a year - on - year increase of 102%. From January to February, the average battery capacity per new - energy vehicle in China was 64.9 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.3%. The average battery capacities per vehicle of new - energy passenger cars, trucks, buses, and special vehicles were 54.5 kWh, 223.9 kWh, 211.3 kWh, and 156.8 kWh respectively [5][9][85]. 3.14 Terminal - Energy Storage - From January to February 2026, the tender, winning bid, and installation of energy storage were still greatly affected by the Spring Festival. However, from the perspective of the average winning bid price, the price centers of 2 - hour energy storage and 4 - hour EPC moved up. In terms of installation, it increased significantly compared with previous years, and the installed capacity was basically the same as that in November of the previous year [5][9][100]. 3.15 Supply - Demand Balance - The current balance sheet does not consider the issue of the suspension of lithium ore shipping in Zimbabwe, which may affect the lithium salt supply in late April at the earliest. If it fails to resume, the market will return to a shortage state in May. Attention should be paid to when the shipping can resume and be vigilant against the supply shock caused by the concentrated shipping back to China. There are also concerns about the lithium ore production in Australia at the end of the first quarter. If overseas supply - side risk events continue to develop, the shortage of lithium ore supply will be transmitted to the actual supply of lithium carbonate and further push up prices, and the amplification of stocking and replenishment coefficients may also make the explicit inventory more invisible [6][10][101]. 3.16 Options - Relevant charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, the put - call ratio of option trading volume, and the put - call ratio of option open interest related to lithium carbonate [104][105][106].