中辉有色观点-20260401

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Attention to trial long [1] - Silver: Mainly on the sidelines [1] - Copper: Hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Tin: Rebound [3] - Aluminum: Rebound [3] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [3] - Industrial Silicon: Pressured to fall back [3] - Polysilicon: Decline [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US and Iran have released intentions to ease the situation, but global inflation is rising. There are still uncertainties in the short - term war situation. Radical long - term investors can pay attention to the bottom arrival of gold. Silver is under short - term pressure and it is difficult to participate. Copper is expected to rise in the medium - and long - term, and zinc continues to rebound. Lead's price is under short - term rebound pressure. Carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillation and waiting to stabilize. Tin, aluminum show short - term rebound trends, while nickel's rebound is under pressure. Industrial silicon is pressured to fall back, and polysilicon prices decline [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Core view: Attention to trial long. Main logic: The US and Iran have released intentions to ease the situation, market sentiment has eased, but global inflation is rising. There are still many uncontrollable factors disturbing the market, and recession trading and liquidity crises still exist. Short - term war situation is full of uncertainties. Radical long - term investors can pay attention to the bottom arrival [1] - Market data: SHFE gold latest price is 1020.1, up 0.51% from the previous value, and up 0.61% from last week; COMEX gold latest price is 4700, up 3.51% from the previous value, and up 5.02% from last week. Spot gold (T + D) latest price is 1015.68, up 0.67% from the previous value, and up 2.62% from last week. London gold spot price is 4669, up 3.44% from the previous value, and up 4.40% from last week [4] Silver - Core view: Mainly on the sidelines. Main logic: Silver is linked with gold. The short - term market trades inflation and stagflation, silver is trampled and under short - term pressure. Although silver is in an inventory state, the fundamentals are ignored. It is unknown when the Iranian situation will end, and it is difficult to participate in silver in the short - term [1] - Market data: SHFE silver latest price is 18126, up 2.37% from the previous value, and up 0.08% from last week; COMEX silver latest price is 75, up 7.36% from the previous value, and up 5.46% from last week. Silver (T + D) latest price is 18031, up 2.68% from the previous value, and up 4.27% from last week. London silver spot price is 75.1, up 7.22% from the previous value, and up 5.37% from last week [4] Copper - Core view: Hold long positions. Main logic: The Middle East situation has eased, the US and Iran have released intentions to end the conflict. Three Chinese cargo ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar has fallen 0.7% during the day, crude oil has declined, domestic demand has recovered, inventory has been destocked, copper has oscillated upwards and broken through the range. The medium - and long - term outlook for copper is still positive [1] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract is 96760 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day; LME copper is 12383 US dollars/ton, up 1.54%; COMEX copper is 565.2 US dollars/pound, up 3.01%. Domestic social inventory has decreased by 2.43 million tons, and SHFE inventory has decreased by 5.2 million tons [6] Zinc - Core view: Rebound. Main logic: The macro and sector sentiment is positive. There is an expectation of production cuts in overseas smelters, and zinc ingots at home and abroad are being destocked, so zinc continues to rebound [1] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract is 23695 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day; LME zinc is 3214 US dollars/ton, up 1.01%. The inventory of SHFE zinc warehouse receipts has decreased by 2043 tons, and the SMM seven - region social inventory has decreased by 0.13 million tons [9] Lead - Core view: Rebound under pressure. Main logic: The current supply - demand weak pattern in the lead market continues. The accumulation of domestic lead ingots exceeds expectations, and the demand of downstream battery enterprises is not good, so the lead price is under short - term rebound pressure [1] Carbonate Lithium - Core view: Wide - range oscillation. Main logic: The total inventory has a small accumulation, the increase in production makes it difficult for the price to rise. There are uncertainties in the supply side at home and abroad, and there are many market rumors. Wait for the stabilization [2] - Market data: The main contract LC2605 price is 157,200 yuan/ton, down 8.40% from the previous value. The weekly production of carbonate lithium is 24,610 tons, up 1.01% from the previous week; the weekly inventory is 99,489 tons, up 0.62% from the previous week [20] Tin - Core view: Rebound. Main logic: The supply of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar overseas is gradually recovering, the start - up of major smelting enterprises in Yunnan and other places in China is stable, and the orders of downstream tin solder enterprises are relatively flat, so the tin price shows a short - term rebound trend [3] Aluminum - Core view: Rebound. Main logic: There is an expectation of tightening of bauxite in Guinea overseas, electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East has been cut, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a high level, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has rebounded, so the aluminum price shows a short - term rebound trend [3] - Market data: The closing price of LME aluminum is 3436 US dollars/ton, down 0.26% from the previous value; the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 24875 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 137.3 million tons, up 1.78% from the previous week [12] Nickel - Core view: Rebound under pressure. Main logic: The issue of Indonesian export ore tax continues to cause disturbances, the domestic nickel inventory is still at a high level, the inventory of downstream stainless steel has accumulated again due to poor consumption, so the nickel price is under short - term rebound pressure [3] - Market data: The closing price of LME nickel is 17350 US dollars/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 137120 yuan/ton, up 0.01%. The SMM pure nickel social inventory is 89808 tons, up 1.54% from the previous value [16] Industrial Silicon - Core view: Pressured to fall back. Main logic: The industry meeting brings the expectation of anti - involution policy again, and there are still disturbances in the cost side, which drives the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand weakness in the fundamentals limits the price elasticity, and it is mainly for range operation [3] Polysilicon - Core view: Decline. Main logic: The resumption of production of polysilicon in April has increased, but the production schedule of downstream silicon wafer factories has been reduced, and the industry has turned to inventory accumulation again. The spot price has been further reduced, and the futures price is anchored to the enterprise's cash cost, so it is bearish operation [3]