中辉期货豆粕日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Weak Consolidation for Soybean Meal: Although the soybean meal inventory increased slightly week - on - week and is lower year - on - year, the estimated soybean imports in April are nearly 2 million tons higher year - on - year, indicating a good short - term supply. Overnight US soybean data is not strongly bearish. Soybean meal is expected to open slightly higher and consolidate. Due to the loosening domestic fundamentals, be cautious about going long and manage positions carefully. Pay attention to the cost impact from crude oil fluctuations [1][5]. - Weak Consolidation for Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal and closed slightly lower. The bearish pressure of Canadian rapeseed arrivals in April has been largely reflected in the market. With domestic rapeseed approaching harvest, be cautious about going long and it's advisable to wait and see. Focus on the subsequent inventory build - up of domestic rapeseed meal, the trend of crude oil, and the Canadian rapeseed planting report [1][6]. - Short - term Bullish for Palm Oil: Palm oil rose and then fell. Although the March Malaysian palm oil data is good and there is a growing call for Indonesia's B50, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia is expected to gradually recover in April. Be cautious about chasing long positions and manage positions well. Pay short - term attention to the guidance from the crude oil market [1][9]. - Short - term Bullish for Soybean Oil: Domestic soybean imports in April are optimistic, with sufficient short - term supply. However, it is greatly disturbed by the crude oil market. Manage positions well and focus on the final situation of Brazilian soybean export inspections and the subsequent trend of crude oil [1]. - Short - term Bullish for Rapeseed Oil: Domestic rapeseed oil is in a low - inventory state. Although a large amount of Canadian rapeseed will arrive in April, the short - term spot market strongly supports the near - month contract. The near - month rapeseed oil is expected to remain strongly volatile, but be cautious about going long due to the approaching domestic rapeseed harvest. Treat it as an event - driven market caused by crude oil market disturbances and participate in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of crude oil, the outlook for Canadian rapeseed planting area, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory build - up [1]. - Beware of Callback for Cotton: Internationally, the new - year US cotton is expected to decline more than previously expected, and its exports are at a record high, so it is expected to run strongly in the short - term and narrow the price gap with domestic cotton. Domestically, the current spot basis is still high, and the downstream orders and machine - running rate are better than the same period, supporting the short - term cotton price. However, beware of the over - consumption of April orders due to pre - demand, and the high import of cotton and yarn puts pressure on inventory reduction. If the reduction in planting area in early April is limited, the market will face a high callback demand, and be cautious about holding long positions in the next two weeks [1][13]. - Pressured Operation for Red Dates: Currently, the market is in the off - season with a loose supply - demand pattern. The inventory reduction is slow, and rising temperatures will further suppress red date consumption. Without positive factors, the enthusiasm for holding positions by funds has significantly decreased. However, the current valuation is relatively low, so the deep - decline space is also limited. The market is expected to operate under pressure [1][15]. - Differentiated Performance for Live Pigs: As the spot price further declines, the losses of fattening pigs and piglets are deepening, which may accelerate the reduction of sow inventory. However, the high supply base of live pigs this year remains unchanged, and the contango structure of far - month contracts may strengthen further. The demand is in the off - season, and the market may continue to push down prices. Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure, and it's difficult for the market to reverse in the short - term. You can pay attention to the bottom - inventory build - up rebound of medium - term contracts. Far - month contracts such as 01 and subsequent ones may see the expected acceleration of production capacity reduction on the supply side. Continue to pay attention to the bottom - buying opportunities or reverse - spread configurations driven by the decline of near - month contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Market Data: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract) closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3288.86 yuan/ton, down 11.43 yuan or 0.35%. The soybean crushing profit and basis have changed to some extent [3]. - Industry Information: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 1.784 billion tons, higher than the previous estimate. The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters expectation. As of March 1, 2026, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, up 10% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: The national rapeseed meal market price dropped by 0 - 30 yuan/ton. As of March 27, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 97,000 tons, down 31,000 tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, down 1,000 tons week - on - week; the unexecuted contracts were 50,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week [6]. - Industry Information: As of the week of March 22, Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 33.2% to 195,000 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to March 22, 2026, Canadian rapeseed exports were 5.0739 million tons, 23.5% less than the same period of the previous year [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Market Data: The futures price of palm oil (main contract) closed at 9866 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The national average price was 9855 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 1.65%. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory decreased by 15,800 tons week - on - week to 792,400 tons [8]. - Industry Information: Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 increased by 56.7% to 1,607,065 tons compared with the same period of the previous month. The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 20 increased by 0.92% [9]. 3.4 Cotton - Market Data: The futures prices of domestic cotton contracts such as CF2605, CF2609, etc. declined slightly. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) increased by 27 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The inventory of national commercial cotton decreased by 150,000 tons to 4.8938 million tons [10]. - Industry Information: Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production is estimated to be 3.7951 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease. India's cotton planting area in the 2026 rainy season is expected to increase significantly, with a maximum increase of 20%. In China, the new - year seed cotton purchase price is expected to rise, and the 26/27 cotton production is estimated to be 7.24 million tons, a decrease of more than 6% year - on - year. From January to February, China's cotton imports increased by 41.0% year - on - year, and the yarn imports increased by 40.2% year - on - year [11][12]. 3.5 Red Dates - Market Data: The futures prices of red date contracts such as CJ2605, CJ2609, etc. declined slightly. The spot prices in various regions were relatively stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 81 tons to 11,459 tons, still 656 tons higher than the same period [14]. - Industry Information: In the production area, Xinjiang jujube farmers are carrying out pruning and fertilization. In the downstream market, the trading volume in Hebei and Guangdong markets is light, and the market is in the off - season [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Market Data: The futures prices of live pig contracts such as Ih2605, Ih2607, etc. declined. The national average slaughter price remained unchanged at 9420 yuan/ton. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume decreased by 12.23% month - on - month. The profit of pig slaughtering and self - raising is in a loss state [16]. - Industry Information: On the supply side, the intention of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter has increased, and the second - fattening is sporadic. The number of piglets born in February increased, and the reduction of sow inventory is slow. On the demand side, the terminal consumption is weak, and the slaughter enterprises mainly purchase on demand [17].