集运指数（欧线）：现货装载承压，04震荡整理，远月跟随地缘波动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is expected to trade in a narrow range as it is basically at par with the market's neutral forecast after Maersk's price cut in the third week. The EC2605 contract is expected to follow real - world fluctuations and gradually narrow its premium over the EC2604. The EC2606 and far - month contracts will fluctuate widely with geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is difficult for geopolitical tensions to truly cool down, resulting in large one - sided fluctuations. Seasonal spread opportunities to widen at low levels should be continuously monitored [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Contract Price and Trading Data: The EC2604 contract closed at 1,672.9 points, down 4.79% with a decrease of 1,524 in positions. The EC2605 contract closed at 1,905.3 points, down 7.01% with an increase of 1,622 in positions. The EC2606 contract closed at 2,394.1 points, down 6.74% with a decrease of 1,369 in positions. The EC2607 contract closed at 2,586.2 points, down 3.14% with a decrease of 35 in positions. The EC2608 contract closed at 2,435.8 points, down 4.31% with an increase of 2,639 in positions. The EC2610 contract closed at 1,592.8 points, down 3.85% with a decrease of 47 in positions [1] - Spot Freight Rates: The weekly increase in the European - route freight rate index was 14.5%, and the bi - weekly increase was 4.1%. The freight rate of Maersk from April 13 - 19 (week16) was reduced by 100 to 2200/2300 (40GP/40HC). MSC reduced its price by about 200 to 2640 dollars/FEU from April 1 - 12. OOCL reduced its price by about 50 to 2650 dollars/FEU from April 8 - 14, and the special price of the overtime ship CSCL GLOBE was 2550 dollars/FEU. Evergreen temporarily reported 2900 dollars/FEU from April 7 - 14 [1][9] 2. Supply - side Situation - Weekly Average Capacity: The latest weekly average capacity in April was 31.9 million TEU/week, with the first and second half - months being 32.5 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. In May, the capacity was 31.6 million TEU/week, and the recent capacity reduction mainly came from 3 sailings suspended by the PA alliance after the May Day holiday [8] - Red Sea and Mandeb Strait Risks: The threat in the Red Sea and the Mandeb Strait remains active. In the short term, the Houthis are likely to maintain a restrained stance. The most significant impact on the container shipping market may be the interference with the oil exports from Yanbu Port, which will cause the shipping companies' fuel costs to rise [8] 3. Demand - side Situation - Loading Pressure: With the upgrade of the PA ship group route, the loading differences among shipping companies continue. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE, which has the largest cabin - space share. The lower limit of market loading depends on the cargo - collection situation of this route [8] 4. Mid - to - Long - term Outlook - Global Trade Growth: The WTO predicts that the global trade growth rate in 2026 will slow down from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9%, with the Middle East conflict and energy price fluctuations being the main downward risks [9] 5. Valuation - Freight Rate Forecast: In the first week of April (week14), the freight rate center was revised down by 50 to 2550 dollars/FEU. It is estimated that in the second week of April (week15), the market freight rate center may fall to around 2400 - 2450 dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points on the SCFIS, which will be included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. In the third week of April, the market freight rate center may fall to around 2350 dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1600 - 1700 points on the SCFIS, which will be included in the second - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract [10] 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]