国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance stimulated by B50 news [2][4] - Soybean oil is boosted by the sentiment of the soybean sector due to the lower - than - expected sowing area [2][4] - The USDA area report for soybean meal is bullish, and the futures market may rebound [2][13] - The spot price of soybean is stable, and the futures market rebounds and fluctuates [2][13] - Corn runs in a volatile manner [2][16] - Sugar oscillates within a range [2][20] - Attention should be paid to the domestic new - crop cotton planting [2][23] - Wait for opportunities to short eggs at high prices in the far - month contracts [2][27] - The market has recognized the L - bottom expectation for pigs, and the price center continues to move down [2][30] - Pay attention to peanut purchases by oil mills [2][34] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's day - session closing price is 9,866 yuan/ton with a - 0.64% change, and night - session closing price is 10,094 yuan/ton with a 2.31% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price is 8,668 yuan/ton with a - 0.53% change, and night - session closing price is 8,768 yuan/ton with a 1.15% change [5] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia will implement the B50 biofuel policy from July 1st; the 2026 US soybean planting area is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 85.549 million acres [6][7] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price is 4,641 yuan/ton with a +74 (+1.62%) change, and night - session closing price is 4,639 yuan/ton with a +27 (+0.59%) change; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price is 2,915 yuan/ton with a - 22 (-0.75%) change, and night - session closing price is 2,913 yuan/ton with a - 6 (-0.21%) change [13] - Macro and Industry News: On March 31st, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the sowing area was lower than market expectations [15] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is 0 [15] Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2605 is 2,351 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and the night - session closing price is 2,364 yuan/ton with a 0.55% change; the closing price of C2607 is 2,368 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change, and the night - session closing price is 2,378 yuan/ton with a 0.42% change [17] - Macro and Industry News: The price of northern corn shipped in bulk to ports decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable with a slight decline [18] - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price is 15.52 cents/pound with a - 0.02 change; the mainstream spot price is 5,430 yuan/ton with a - 30 change; the futures main - contract price is 5,398 yuan/ton with a - 43 change [20] - Macro and Industry News: As of March 15th, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 10% year - on - year; from January to February in China, the cumulative sugar imports were 520,000 tons (+440,000 tons) [20] - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [22] Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2605 is 15,295 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% change, and the night - session closing price is 15,510 yuan/ton with a 1.41% change; the closing price of CY2605 is 21,545 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change, and the night - session closing price is 21,750 yuan/ton with a 0.95% change [23] - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot trading was mostly quiet, and the spot basis was generally stable. ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell due to the higher - than - expected US cotton planting area in 2026 [24] - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26] Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2604 is 3,200 yuan/500 kg with a - 2.82% change, and the closing price of egg 2605 is 3,440 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.32% change [27] - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28] Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price is 9,380 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 9,200 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 10,160 yuan/ton; the price of live - hog 2605 is 9,770 yuan/ton with a - 235 change year - on - year [31] - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [32] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts is 9,000 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts is 7,500 yuan/ton; the closing price of PK604 is 8,070 yuan/ton with a 0.07% change, and the closing price of PK605 is 8,086 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change [34] - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, the mainstream peanut prices were stable with a slight decline in some areas; in Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong, the peanut prices were weak [35] - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36]