280万吨产能“瞬间”蒸发：中东遇袭事件将重构全球铝市？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attack on Middle Eastern aluminum plants has exposed the vulnerability of the global aluminum supply chain, leading to short - term price increases due to sentiment and expectations. However, the long - term price trend is determined by supply - demand fundamentals. The supply has reached the capacity ceiling, demand growth is moderate, and high inventory will suppress price increases. Short - term prices may be strong, but will face downward pressure in the long run [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Aluminum Supply Pattern - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is rigid with limited growth elasticity. In 2025, global production was about 74 million tons, a 1.65% year - on - year increase. The Middle East accounted for about 9% of global capacity. Overseas supply is in a fragile state with "easy reduction of existing capacity and difficulty in increasing new capacity". China's electrolytic aluminum industry has reached the 45 - million - ton capacity ceiling, with a 2025 operating capacity of 44.6075 million tons and a utilization rate of 96.5%. Global supply is in a tight balance, and regional supply disruptions will have a magnified impact [2]. Impact of Middle Eastern Events on the Global Aluminum Supply Chain - Conduction Paths: The attack impacts the global aluminum supply chain through three paths. Firstly, over 30% of Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum capacity has stopped, affecting over 6% of global supply. Secondly, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has caused dual obstacles in raw material and finished - product logistics, deepening the supply impact from logistics to production. Thirdly, the复产 cycle is long, and the supply gap may be long - term due to the high - continuity and high - energy - consumption nature of electrolytic aluminum production [5]. - Impact on Trade Flow: The attack will restructure the global aluminum trade flow. It has intensified the expectation of spot supply shortage, leading to an increase in overseas spot premiums. European aluminum spot premiums have reached a record high, and the overseas aluminum premium has spread to Asia. It is expected that aluminum premiums will continue to rise [6][7]. Global Aluminum Demand Analysis - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is rigid in various industries, and its consumption structure is being reshaped. The proportion of aluminum used in construction has declined to about 15.8%, while that in transportation and power electronics has increased to 26.9% and 22.9% respectively. New - energy vehicles and AI data centers have created new demand growth. In the context of the Middle Eastern conflict, global primary aluminum supply growth is limited, while terminal demand remains resilient. It is estimated that there will be a supply gap of about 250,000 tons in the Chinese market in 2026 and about 820,000 tons in the overseas market, with a global supply gap of about 1.07 million tons [10]. - The consumption side has advanced its inventory - building behavior. The number of LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts has increased significantly, indicating a strong overseas consumption - side demand for提货 [11]. Outlook for the Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Market - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity has reached the 45 - million - ton policy ceiling. In 2026, the operating capacity is expected to be about 44.59 million tons, with a utilization rate close to 100%. The annual effective new capacity is only about 590,000 tons, and the growth rate has slowed significantly [15]. - Demand: There is a structural transformation in demand. The proportion of aluminum used in construction is decreasing, while that in transportation (especially new - energy vehicles) and power electronics is increasing rapidly [15]. - Inventory: As of the end of March, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum reached 1.3258 million tons, much higher than the average level in previous years. This is due to the slow resumption of downstream production after the Spring Festival and the high operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum [18]. - Cost and Profit: The high - profit state of the industry is unsustainable. High inventory and low acceptance of high prices by downstream enterprises will lead to price declines and erode profit margins [18]. - Price Trend: Short - term aluminum prices may be strong due to geopolitical conflicts, but lack fundamental support. In the long run, prices will face downward pressure. Investors should be rational and not over - pursue high prices [20][21].