2026年4月1日：宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20260401

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures may stop falling and rebound following the US soybean futures price, and the market focus will shift to the spring sowing weather theme [5]. - The short - term price of palm oil futures will follow the external market to strengthen, but its trend is weaker than that of the international market [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term: stop falling and rebound; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate strongly [5][6]. - Core Logic: On March 31, the USDA report showed that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 was 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 85.549 million acres, which drove speculative funds to enter the market to go long. The quarterly inventory report showed that the US soybean inventory on March 1 was 2.105 billion bushels, higher than the same period last year and market expectations, indicating an overall abundant supply. The lower - than - expected planting area and cost structure changes support the short - term strengthening of US soybeans, but high inventory and the global supply - abundant pattern limit the upside space. The US soybean futures price oscillating strongly provides import cost support for the domestic soybean market [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term: follow the external market to strengthen; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate strongly [7]. - Core Logic: Geopolitical risks have pushed up crude oil prices, providing cost support and financial attribute premium for palm oil. The expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the optimistic outlook of the US Renewable Fuel Standard constitute long - term demand benefits, boosting market sentiment. However, the domestic fundamentals form a significant drag. Although the arrival volume of palm oil has decreased, its commercial inventory has reached a record high in the same period. High spot prices have suppressed the demand of terminal catering and food processing, and market transactions have been light [7].