铁矿石：铁水复产偏慢，矿价承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the slow recovery of hot metal production, iron ore prices are under pressure. The previous structural contradictions that drove the iron ore price to a relatively high level are expected to ease, leading to a decline in the ore price [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of I2605 was 808.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton (-0.62%). The持仓 was 353,624 hands, a decrease of 17,797 hands [1] - Spot Prices: Imported ore prices, including Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%), all decreased. Domestic ore prices of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 1.7 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts and different ore types also changed [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The previous structural contradictions such as rising freight rates, limited spot liquidity, and the upward shift of the price of the lowest deliverable product drove the iron ore price to a relatively high level. Recently, there are expectations of easing in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in the ore price [1] - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and the scale of policy financial instruments is increased [2] - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 231.09 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.94 tons [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]