铝：供应压力持续氧化铝：过剩格局未改铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of aluminum continues, the over - supply pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - During the second month of the Iran conflict, when oil prices exceeded $100, the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, and the "decoupling" of bonds and oil became a key signal. The market logic shifted from inflation panic to recession concerns and fiscal stimulus expectations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,875, up 150 from T - 1; the closing price of the LME Aluminum 3M was 3,436, down 9 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts showed different changes compared with previous periods [1] - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,827, down 114 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1] - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695, up 1,110 compared with a certain previous period. The trading volume and open interest changed as well [1] Spot Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 139.70 million tons, with no change from T - 1. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 8,125.15, up 82.40 from T - 1. There were also changes in import and export profits and losses [1] - Alumina: The domestic average price of alumina was 2,782, with no change from T - 1. The prices of alumina in different regions and the profit and loss of alumina enterprises also had corresponding changes [1] - Aluminum Bauxite: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from different countries and regions showed different changes compared with previous periods [1] - Aluminum Alloy: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 24,200, with no change from T - 1. The difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 also changed [1] - Caustic Soda: The total inventory of caustic soda in three places was 31,016, down 499 from T - 1 [1] Comprehensive News - ECB President Lagarde questioned US Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimistic judgment on the short - term impact of the Iran war at the G7 meeting. She believed that the impact of this shock would last for a long time [3] - During the second month of the Iran conflict, when oil prices exceeded $100, the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, and the "decoupling" of bonds and oil became a key signal. The market logic shifted from inflation panic to recession concerns and fiscal stimulus expectations [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 1 [3]