西南期货早间评论-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, and precious metals markets are expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Some commodity markets such as steel, iron ore, and coking coal have potential short - term rebound opportunities, and investors can participate with light positions. Different agricultural and chemical product markets have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [6][9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income - Treasury Bonds: The previous trading day saw a full - line increase in treasury bond futures. The central bank's monetary policy committee meeting proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. The current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and the market is expected to face some pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - Stock Index Futures: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Although asset valuations are low and there is room for repair, the Iran situation brings high uncertainty, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the medium term, prices are determined by supply and demand. Rebar demand is decreasing, but supply pressure is relieved, and prices may rebound with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities [14]. - Iron Ore: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on actual supply and demand. Demand may increase, but the impact may be limited. The inventory is at a high level. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can participate with light positions [16][17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on actual supply and demand. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is improving. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Technically, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [19]. - Ferroalloys: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising slightly, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21][22]. 3.5 Energy - Crude Oil: The US is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The price of crude oil may be supported, but also affected by the end of the war. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for INE crude oil [23][24]. 3.6 Chemicals - Polyolefins: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets declined. Supply pressure is expected to ease, but demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [26]. - Synthetic Rubber: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The core contradiction is between cost - push and supply - demand game. The cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [28][29]. - Natural Rubber: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The core contradiction is between the impact of the Middle East conflict on cost and demand and the approaching of the domestic tapping season. The market is in a short - term multi - empty game and is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [31]. - PVC: The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The core contradiction is between the supply concern caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, but the upside space is limited [33][34]. - Urea: The previous trading day, urea futures fell. The core contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside space is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season [36]. - PX: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PX load decreased, and the supply is expected to be tight. The price may be in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38][39]. - PTA: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA load increased, and the downstream polyester load decreased. The short - term multi - empty game is intense, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. It is necessary to be cautious in the short term and pay attention to the negotiation progress and the situation of the strait [41][42]. - Short - Fiber: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The short - term trading is based on the cost logic, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43]. - Bottle Chip: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The processing fee is being repaired. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation, and cost changes [44]. - Soda Ash: The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The cost is rising, but the price adjustment is limited. The market is expected to be in a stalemate [45][47]. - Glass: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is shrinking, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The cost support is still there, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [48]. - Caustic Soda: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory is not significantly reduced. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot market may face pressure [49][50]. - Paper Pulp: The previous trading day, paper pulp futures fell. The port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the supply is also increasing slightly. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory and weak demand put pressure on the market [51][52]. 3.7 Non - Ferrous Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [53]. - Copper: The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The macro - sentiment is cautious, the mine supply is in a tight balance, and the consumption is structurally differentiated. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support after a decline [54]. - Aluminum: The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The ore cost is rising, the supply is tightened, and the demand is strong. The inventory is changing, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise slightly [56][57]. - Zinc: The previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The mine cost provides support, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has repair momentum, but the upside space is limited [58]. - Lead: The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply is tightened, and the demand is for rigid replenishment. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. - Tin: The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support, but the overseas situation is uncertain [63]. - Nickel: The previous trading day, nickel futures rose slightly. The macro - situation is improving, but the policy risk in Indonesia increases. The supply and demand are complex, and the inventory is relatively high. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [64][65]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, and the US soybean planting area is lower than expected. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities for soybean meal at low levels and stay on the sidelines for soybean oil [66][67]. - Palm Oil: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The export data in March is strong, and Indonesia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio. The inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [68][69]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different trends. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [71]. - Cotton: The previous trading day, cotton futures fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory is in a decreasing cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, but the short - term quota issuance is negative. The price has long - term support [73][74]. - Sugar: The previous trading day, sugar futures fluctuated. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is high. The international sugar price has support due to the impact of oil prices. The domestic sugar price has a higher bottom [75][76]. - Apple: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is increasing. The market is expected to be stable and strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [77][78]. - Pig: The previous trading day, pig futures fell. The supply is under pressure, the consumption is weak, and the secondary fattening support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contracts with light positions [79]. - Egg: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply is improving, but the demand may decline after the stocking period. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [80]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The previous trading day, corn futures fell, and corn starch futures rose slightly. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to short - covering opportunities after the price decline [81][83]. - Log: The previous trading day, log futures fell. The export volume from New Zealand decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. The terminal consumption is limited, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [84][86].