国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: Risk sentiment rebounds, and prices rise [2][7] - Zinc: Shows a relatively strong performance [2][10] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Oscillates with a slight upward trend [2][17] - Aluminum: Supply pressure persists [2][21] - Alumina: The oversupply situation remains unchanged [2][21] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: The situation reverses, and prices rebound [2][24] - Palladium: Rebounds upward [2][25] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is pushed up by the ore end [2][29] - Stainless steel: The steel price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2][30] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot have increased to varying degrees, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. ETF holdings have decreased, and inventory changes vary. Price spreads also show different trends [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Powell said the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position," and the White House and Iran have different stances on the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The price of Shanghai copper futures decreased during the day but increased at night, and the price of LME copper increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [7]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation. China's refined copper production increased, and Peru's copper production also increased. Codelco expects production costs to rise [7][9]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The price of Shanghai zinc futures decreased slightly, while the price of LME zinc increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [10]. - News: Trump's "exit roadmap" emerged, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared, increasing the expectation of interest rate hikes [11]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The price of Shanghai lead futures increased slightly, and the price of LME lead also increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and overseas inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [14]. - News: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation [15]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The price of Shanghai tin futures increased, and the price of LME tin also increased. Trading volumes and positions decreased, and inventory changed. Price spreads also showed different trends [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The Iranian president expressed the willingness to end the war, Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [21]. - Comprehensive News: The ECB president questioned the US Treasury Secretary's view on the impact of the Iran war, and the decoupling of US Treasury bonds and oil prices became a key signal [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamental Data: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [25]. - Macro and Industry News: OPEC's production in March hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic, and there were various news about the Iran situation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [30]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there are various news about nickel production and sanctions in Indonesia [30][31][34]. - Inventory Tracking: The inventory of refined nickel, new energy, and nickel - iron stainless steel showed different trends [36].