格林大华期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's clear B50 plan schedule, vegetable oils are expected to follow the trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), due to the lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, the short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 31, palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota for large refineries from 50% to 70% [1]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system, transfer the national institutional budget to "productive" uses, and implement the B50 biodiesel policy from July 1 [1]. - US NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. The May crude oil futures contract fell $1.5, with a settlement price of $101.38 per barrel [1]. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the proportion of biodiesel in regular diesel, while the energy minister calls for more tests [1]. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in the next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of the year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period last month, with an increase in exports to China [1][2]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased by 0.36% week - on - week and decreased by 5.92% year - on - year, with different trends in each type of oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to instability in the Middle East and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil futures are oscillating strongly at a high level. Indonesia's B50 plan tightens the future export expectation of palm oil. Vegetable oils mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions in vegetable oils should be continued to hold [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 31, the spot market was weak, and double - meal continued to decline. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, higher than last year but lower than analysts' expectations [2]. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%, lower than last year but close to the five - year average [2]. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal contract volume decreased. Imported rapeseed inventory and imported rapeseed meal contract volume both decreased [3]. - Provide spot prices, basis prices, and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal as of March 31, as well as soybean crushing profits and soybean and rapeseed arrival costs [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures closed higher due to the lower - than - expected planting area. The short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal is expected to move down with the market, and short - term caution is advised for rapeseed meal. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [3].