华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260401

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term. The finished products are expected to continue to move with a downward - shifted center of gravity and weak operation, while the aluminum price is supported by geopolitical and fundamental factors to remain high [1][2][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - In March 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.6% year - on - year and 10.7% month - on - month. The downstream industry's start - up rate increased overall, and the proportion of molten aluminum rose by about 9.3 percentage points to 73.7%, higher than the initial expectation. The domestic aluminum processing comprehensive PMI reached 65.6%, indicating a significant rebound above the boom - bust line [2] - In March, the aluminum processing industry showed a rapid recovery trend under the combined effects of the "Golden March" peak season, post - holiday resumption of production, policy drive, and high prosperity in some emerging fields. However, factors such as high - level fluctuations in aluminum prices, differentiation in terminal demand, disturbances to exports caused by the Middle East situation, as well as scrap aluminum costs and compliance policy constraints, still limit the industry's subsequent upward space [2] - In mid - to late March, the regional differentiation in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market became more significant, with the inventory trends in East and South China deviating from the spot price difference, and regional market differentiation becoming the core feature of the current electrolytic aluminum spot market [2] - The volatile Middle East situation gives the aluminum price short - term upward momentum. The domestic inventory is still high, and the domestic price is expected to be weaker than the overseas price. The current market trading sentiment revolves around oil prices, and the Middle East geopolitics is the core variable affecting market games [3]