煤焦：弱交割逻辑主导盘面回调

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term market bullish sentiment has cooled, and coking coal prices have declined to repair the basis. The short - term volatility is large, so it is recommended to focus on risk control and adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Recently, the bullish sentiment in the coking coal and coke market has further cooled. The price of the near - delivery month contract has dropped significantly, with the main contract falling by more than 5%, dragging down the weak operation of the ferrous metal sector [3]. - The spill - over impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has gradually cooled. The short - term high inventory of imported Mongolian coal and the weak delivery logic have affected the decline of coal prices [3]. Supply Data - From January to February 2026, the cumulative output of domestic coking coal was 75.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The cumulative import of coking coal from January to February was 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.814 million tons, an increase of 5.21%, which made up for the domestic supply reduction [3]. - Among them, 11.0668 million tons were imported from Mongolia, a year - on - year increase of 71.8%; 5.5022 million tons were imported from Russia, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The two countries together accounted for about 84%. Other seaborne coals showed varying degrees of year - on - year decline [3]. - In March, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 185,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the average from January to February, and an increase of 69,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the port exceeded 4.3 million tons, at a relatively high level [3]. Demand Situation - Steel mills' blast furnaces are in the process of resuming production. However, recently, some areas in Hebei have been affected by environmental protection policies, and the resumption rhythm has been slightly hindered. Last week, the average daily pig iron output rebounded to 2.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53,000 tons [3]. - Currently, finished products have entered the de - stocking cycle, and the characteristics of the peak season will continue, supporting the implementation of the blast furnace resumption expectation [3]. Spot Market - On the spot side, steel mills in some regions have successively accepted the coke price increase. The upward trend of the coking coal price in the production area has slowed down slightly [3].